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The Future is Getting Farther Away

Summary:
In Launching the Innovation Renaissance I said that “If total factor productivity had continued to grow at its 1957 to 1973 rate then we today would be living in the world of 2076 rather than in the world of 2014.” Sadly, the future is continuing to recede. Consider the graph below. If growth had continued at the rate expected by the CBO in 2005 then we today would be living in the world of 2037 rather than in the world of 2021. (n.b. I am eyeballing.) By the way, don’t blame the forecasters. The forecast was reasonable, the reality is below expectation. Hat tip: Matt Yglesias reupping a graph originally produced by Claudia Sahm who I thought had a different interpretation but maybe not!. The post The Future is Getting Farther Away appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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In Launching the Innovation Renaissance I said that “If total factor productivity had continued to grow at its 1957 to 1973 rate then we today would be living in the world of 2076 rather than in the world of 2014.” Sadly, the future is continuing to recede. Consider the graph below. If growth had continued at the rate expected by the CBO in 2005 then we today would be living in the world of 2037 rather than in the world of 2021. (n.b. I am eyeballing.)

By the way, don’t blame the forecasters. The forecast was reasonable, the reality is below expectation.

The Future is Getting Farther Away

Hat tip: Matt Yglesias reupping a graph originally produced by Claudia Sahm who I thought had a different interpretation but maybe not!.

The post The Future is Getting Farther Away appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Alex Tabarrok
Alex Tabarrok is Bartley J. Madden Chair in Economics at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a professor of economics at George Mason University. He specializes in patent-system reform, the effectiveness of bounty hunters compared to the police, how judicial elections bias judges, and how local poverty rates impact trial decisions by juries. He also examines methods for increasing the supply of human organs for transplant, the regulation of pharmaceuticals by the FDA, and voting systems.

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