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A simple and stupid one variable theory of this year’s NBA playoffs (so far)

Summary:
It is typically worth trying on such theories for size, no matter what their defects. It is hard to avoid noticing that last year’s finalists — Miami and the Lakers — both exited this year in the first round, and ignominiously.  Injuries and fatigue were part of the reason why. The teams that are doing best — Phoenix, New Jersey, and Atlanta — had minimal or zero playoff responsibilities last time around.  Usually of course playoff performance is positively correlated from one year to the next. We will see if this theory has predictive value moving forward.  In any case, it does seem the league has discovered the margin where player fatigue truly is a binding variable. Addendum: ESPN provides the data on injuries to stars. The post A simple and stupid one variable theory of this year’s NBA

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It is typically worth trying on such theories for size, no matter what their defects.

It is hard to avoid noticing that last year’s finalists — Miami and the Lakers — both exited this year in the first round, and ignominiously.  Injuries and fatigue were part of the reason why.

The teams that are doing best — Phoenix, New Jersey, and Atlanta — had minimal or zero playoff responsibilities last time around.  Usually of course playoff performance is positively correlated from one year to the next.

We will see if this theory has predictive value moving forward.  In any case, it does seem the league has discovered the margin where player fatigue truly is a binding variable.

Addendum: ESPN provides the data on injuries to stars.

The post A simple and stupid one variable theory of this year’s NBA playoffs (so far) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen is an American economist, academic, and writer. He occupies the Holbert C. Harris Chair of economics as a professor at George Mason University and is co-author, with Alex Tabarrok, of the popular economics blog Marginal Revolution. Cowen and Tabarrok have also ventured into online education by starting Marginal Revolution University. He currently writes the "Economic Scene" column for the New York Times, and he also writes for such publications as The New Republic, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Newsweek, and the Wilson Quarterly.

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