Monday , March 30 2020
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Tuesday assorted links and non-links

Summary:
1. Some mask production is being deregulated. 2. “Using country-, subnational-, and individual-level data, we show that Facebook has had a significant and sizable positive impact on citizen protests.” 3. Open source ventilators? 4. Automated contact tracing without giving up privacy?  And explanation. 5. What the SuperForecasters think. 6. A useful thread on mutation. 7. Scott Alexander on masks. 8. “People exhibit overconfidence in their ability to calculate exponential growth.” 9. The Spanish flu rebellion against masks.  And how the Spanish flu shaped trust.  And 1919 Science piece on the lessons of the Spanish flu. 10. From my email: “One major issue for SMBs is that many owners are on the hook *personally* for lines of credit and other business loans and also for business credit

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1. Some mask production is being deregulated.

2. “Using country-, subnational-, and individual-level data, we show that Facebook has had a significant and sizable positive impact on citizen protests.”

3. Open source ventilators?

4. Automated contact tracing without giving up privacy?  And explanation.

5. What the SuperForecasters think.

6. A useful thread on mutation.

7. Scott Alexander on masks.

8. “People exhibit overconfidence in their ability to calculate exponential growth.

9. The Spanish flu rebellion against masks.  And how the Spanish flu shaped trust.  And 1919 Science piece on the lessons of the Spanish flu.

10. From my email: “One major issue for SMBs is that many owners are on the hook *personally* for lines of credit and other business loans and also for business credit cards. For example, my business has a line of credit that I had to personally guarantee and it is with the same major bank that holds my mortgage. Bankruptcy would probably mean I discharge the line of credit AND lose my house at the same time. I suspect other SMB owners are in similar situations.”

11. Aurlus Mabele, coronavirus victim (NYT) obit), RIP (music video here).  And Manu Dibango too.

12. “Based on the proposed methodological procedure, we estimated that the actual cumulative number of exposed cases in the total population in Lombardy on March 8 was of the order of 15 times the confirmed cumulative number of infected cases. According to this scenario, the DAY-ZERO for the outbreak in Lombardy was the 21st of January 2020. The effective per-day disease transmission rate for the period until March 8 was found to be 0.779 (90% CI: 0.777-0.781), while the “effective” per-day mortality rate was found to be 0.0173 (90% CI: 0.0154-0.0192). Based on these values, the basic reproduction rate R0 was found to be 4.04 (90% CI: 4.03-4.05). Importantly, by reducing the transmission rate by 90% on March 8 to reflect the suspension of almost all activities in Italy, we run the simulator to forecast the fade out of the epidemic. Simulations show that if the measures continue, the complete fade out of the outbreak in Lombardy is expected to occur by the end of May 2020.”  Paper here.

13. Why Germany is not doing as well as you think.  It is about the exponential function, yet again.

14. An overview on possible drugs and their status.

The post Tuesday assorted links and non-links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen is an American economist, academic, and writer. He occupies the Holbert C. Harris Chair of economics as a professor at George Mason University and is co-author, with Alex Tabarrok, of the popular economics blog Marginal Revolution. Cowen and Tabarrok have also ventured into online education by starting Marginal Revolution University. He currently writes the "Economic Scene" column for the New York Times, and he also writes for such publications as The New Republic, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Newsweek, and the Wilson Quarterly.

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