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The polarization of hurricane opinion?

Summary:
A difference-in-differences analysis demonstrates that Trump/Clinton vote share strongly predicts evacuation rates, but only after the emergence of conservative-media dismissals of hurricane warnings in September 2017, just before Irma made landfall in Florida. Following this viral “hurricane trutherism”, we estimate that Trump-voting Florida residents were 10-11% less likely to evacuate Irma than Clinton-voters (34% vs. 45%) after controlling for key demographic and geographic covariates, highlighting one consequence of political polarization. Here is the full paper, by Elisa F. Long, M. Keith Chen, and Ryne Rohla.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis. The post The polarization of hurricane opinion? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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A difference-in-differences analysis demonstrates that Trump/Clinton vote share strongly predicts evacuation rates, but only after the emergence of conservative-media dismissals of hurricane warnings in September 2017, just before Irma made landfall in Florida. Following this viral “hurricane trutherism”, we estimate that Trump-voting Florida residents were 10-11% less likely to evacuate Irma than Clinton-voters (34% vs. 45%) after controlling for key demographic and
geographic covariates, highlighting one consequence of political polarization.

Here is the full paper, by Elisa F. Long, M. Keith Chen, and Ryne Rohla.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post The polarization of hurricane opinion? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen is an American economist, academic, and writer. He occupies the Holbert C. Harris Chair of economics as a professor at George Mason University and is co-author, with Alex Tabarrok, of the popular economics blog Marginal Revolution. Cowen and Tabarrok have also ventured into online education by starting Marginal Revolution University. He currently writes the "Economic Scene" column for the New York Times, and he also writes for such publications as The New Republic, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Newsweek, and the Wilson Quarterly.

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