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Tag Archives: weekly economic summary

Slow Economic Growth Will Be Around For A Long Time

Written by Steven Hansen The White House website reads: To get the economy back on track, President Trump has outlined a bold plan to create 25 million new American jobs in the next decade and return to 4 percent annual economic growth Follow up: Elected officials have a very shallow and misguided views of economic gearing. I have no problem with people setting goals pushing the limits of what MAY be possible. However, USA economic growth of 4% year-over-year is likely impossible...

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Will Jobs In The Future Be Gained Through Dead Man’s Shoes?

Written by Steven Hansen The are more and more words printed every day on the effects of automation - some even believe in the "tooth fairy",  like a British study claiming that automation over the last 15 years created 4 times more jobs than were lost. Follow up: If you give me some money, I will produce a study with any conclusion desired. But even if the data and analysis in a study are not biased and accurate - that does not mean you can extrapolate the findings into the future. I...

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Trumpcare or Obamacare – They Both Suck

Over the last two weeks, versions of Trumpcare have made it out of hiding for consideration. Of course the media immediately jumped on the bandwagon pointing out various defects and generally slamming Trumpcare, often with bias rather than detailed facts. Follow up: It appears that Obamacare IS headed on the road to failure - but Trumpcare ain't any better. Why? The largest problem with health care is not who will pay, or who it covers - but the rapid escalation of costs which make it...

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The Confusing State Of Retail Sales

Written by Steven Hansen Warren Buffett is confused about retail trade stating "retailing is tough for me to figure out". Not only is the retail model changing - but consumer spending and inflation trends are changing also. Follow up: Mr. Buffett was lamenting about missing the Amazon investing train - not understanding that the retail model was changing from the box stores to internet purchasing. But it is not just the trend towards online purchasing occurring in retail - but other...

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Is Growing Household Debt An Economic Counter-Dynamic?

Written by Steven Hansen According to Liberty Street Economics: The latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Feds Center for Microeconomic Data showed a substantial increase in aggregate household debt balances in the fourth quarter of 2016 and for the year as a whole. As of December 31, 2016, total household debt stood at $12.58 trillion, an increase of $226 billion (or 1.8 percent) from the third quarter of 2016. Follow up: The bottom line of this...

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Is Free Trade Harming the Economy?

Written by Steven Hansen I generally get inspiration from the mindless crap (aka opinion) the media pumps out pretending it is news. The media has turned from being mostly biased towards (and non-objective about) the Obama Administration - and mostly biased against (and non-objective about) the Trump Administration. Could it be people are not objective when it comes to those they like or hate? Follow up: Most of my posts are aimed at cherry picked points perpetrated by the media or...

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Chaos Theory Applied To Trump Presidency

Written by Steven Hansen The New York Times published its view: The unanimous verdict: Thus far, the Trump administration is a textbook case of how not to run a complex organization like the executive branch. Follow up: And they found a few Ph.Ds to backup their statement: “This is so basic, it’s covered in the introduction to the M.B.A. program that all our students take,” said Lindred Greer, an assistant professor of organizational behavior at the Stanford Graduate School of...

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Higher Employment Levels Not Energizing The Economy

Written by Steven Hansen I have written on many occasions about the economic reset which occurred somewhere around the turn of the century. Inflation adjusted family incomes and prime age employment have little changed since 2000. Follow up: I am a boomer. I have seen much better economic times. I know that demographics are part of the negative dynamics affecting the  current economy. For instance, the population of the 25 to 54 age group in the USA has increased only 5% since 2000 -...

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The Destruction of the Existing Workforce

Written by Steven Hansen All of us have opinions on the affects of automation. My university education stressed that there was nothing to fear from automation, as historically automation created at least as many jobs as destroyed. Follow up: The Mainstream View From McKinsey Global Institute: While much of the current debate about automation has focused on the potential for mass unemployment, people will need to continue working alongside machines to produce the growth in per capita GDP...

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Many (But Not All) Dynamics Improving But Federal Tax Receipts Are Down

Written by Steven Hansen I am getting the feeling the economy is lifting. The actual data to support my feelings is not obvious.  Follow up: I have written on many occasions that I am biased against opinion surveys. The theory is that good times require optimistic businessmen and consumer. But too many things affect one's opinion on any particular day - but it was hard to ignore this week's NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey which skyrocketed to its highest level since 2004. I also am...

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