Tuesday , January 19 2021
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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Economic Report of the President, 2021

Is out, here. The policy inclusive forecast from CEA, as compared to the official forecast in the FY2021 budget proposal, and the WSJ January survey: Figure 3: GDP as reported in 2020Q3 3rd release (black), Administration FY2021 forecast (and MSR) (red square), WSJ January survey mean (blue circle), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA, 2020Q3 3rd release, OMB, January WSJ survey,  Economic Report of the President, 2021, and author’s calculations. These projections…...

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Clarida on price level targeting

David Beckworth directed me to a Richard Clarida speech from a few months back: Five features of the new framework and September FOMC statement define how the Committee will seek to achieve its price-stability mandate over time:1. The Committee expects to delay liftoff from the ELB until PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation has risen to 2 percent on an annual basis and other complementary conditions, consistent with achieving this goal on a sustained basis and...

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Friday assorted links

1. Elad Gil on how Israel succeeded with vaccination.  And Charles Barkley on vaccine allocation. 2. America’s most expensive home? 3. Canadian Covid arbitrage markets in everything. 4. “A 37-year-old Tokyo man who says he rents himself out to other people “to do nothing” has been inundated with gratitude from Twitter users, indicating people are happy with his new form of support.” 5. The worst and most tragic discovery of all time and yet you don’t give a...

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Corporate donations are good for political moderation

This article demonstrates that limits on campaign contributions—which alter a candidate’s ability to raise money from certain types of donors—affect the ideologies of legislators in office. Using an original data set of campaign contribution limits in some US states over the last 20 years, I exploit variation across and within states over time to show that higher individual contributions lead to the selection of more polarized legislators, while higher limits on contributions from political...

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Money-maximizing macaque thieves demand ransoms

At the Uluwatu temple in Bali, monkeys mean business. The long-tailed macaques who roam the ancient site are infamous for brazenly robbing unsuspecting tourists and clinging on to their possessions until food is offered as ransom payment. Researchers have found they are also skilled at judging which items their victims value the most and using this information to maximise their profit. Shrewd macaques prefer to target items that humans are most likely to exchange for food, such as...

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Insurrections are contagious

That is the topic of my current Bloomberg column, here is one bit: Put aside U.S. politics for a moment and view the events of the last week from a global perspective. Without backing from the military, a crowd entered the Capitol building and disabled the U.S. Congress, and almost succeeded in achieving more violent goals yet. The question is not what people should infer, or what most people will think. It’s what the people at the extremes will think and do. Even if many foreign citizens...

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Thursday assorted links

1. Mental health slow boil pandemic edition.  And what is the implied discount rate here? 2. Are Israeli flying ambulances on the way? 3. What wine meant to Roger Scruton.  Not my view of course. 4. The “telephone problem” of sequential communication may lead to excess negativity. 5. Marginal Revolution University supply and demand instructional unit for high schools (and others!). 6. Dose delay and viral resistance, recommended.  First Doses First is looking better all the time....

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What should I ask Sarah Parcak?

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with her.  Here is part of her Wikipedia entry: Sarah Helen Parcak is an American archaeologist, Egyptologist, and remote sensing expert, who has used satellite imaging to identify potential archaeological sites in Egypt, Rome, and elsewhere in the former Roman Empire. She is a professor of Anthropology and director of the Laboratory for Global Observation at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. In partnership with her husband, Greg Mumford, she directs...

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The volatility of events is correlated (and not always in a good way)

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: Consider bad economic news, which is relatively unambiguous. With stock market returns, volatility is correlated over time, and it is higher in bear markets. To some extent the bad mood is contagious, and the bad events behind the volatility may be interlinked as well. To be clear, the stock market has done fine lately. The latest bad news is about politics and public health, not corporate earnings. Still, the stock market...

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All I’ve got left is hatred

For there is nothing good or bad, but thinking makes it so. — Epictetus Seriously, are you telling me that within a 12-month period I must:1. Root for Joe Biden to be elected president?2. Root for the Lakers to win the NBA title? Apparently so. PS. Trade Kyrie for Russ. I want to see what OKC would have looked like if they’d stayed together. Tags:      

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