Tuesday , October 15 2019
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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

The US is losing the trade war, and that’s good

If the US were fighting a trade war over human rights, I’d have doubts about whether it was the right way to address the issue. Nonetheless, I’d certainly root for us to succeed. But this trade war is being fought over economic issues, and thus I hope we lose. Most of the commentary about the mini-agreement has been along these lines: “I’m skeptical that there is anything that could be objectively called a deal,” said Scott Kennedy, an expert on the U.S.-China economic...

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A warning for Democrats

Just a year before the next election, polls show that roughly half of voters believe that Trump should be impeached and removed from office. That should be great news for Democrats, right? Even if he survives impeachment (which seems likely), the polls show that he’s quite unpopular. Unfortunately, betting markets show that if Trump gets the nomination then he is likely to be re-elected. This is not because Trump is popular; rather the betting markets anticipate that the Dems...

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Sunday assorted links

1. T.S. Eliot trove of letters to be unsealed. 2. The Mayans: “Hey all: you realize that researchers just used lasers to find *60,000* new sites in Guatemala?!? This is HOLY [expletive] territory.” 3. Are blackboards underrated?  Not by mathematicians. 4. Buried bog butter. 5. Against contempt. The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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The modern world has not yet abolished slavery and forced deprivation

The health service has said that it will stop locking up, isolating and physically restraining autistic children after an inquiry stated that it was damaging to their health. NHS England has committed to make radical changes within 18 months, including a pledge not to place children with autism and learning difficulties in psychiatric wards unless they have a mental illness. Matt Hancock, the health secretary, commissioned an inquiry led by Teresa Fenech, director of nursing at NHS England,...

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Saturday assorted links

1. Betting markets in everything: will gamers make pro-Hong Kong statements? 2. Who might have won the economics Nobel Prize? 3. The California power outage and labs.  How are those cadavers doing? 4. What is wrong with Blackboard software? 5. Haiti update (New Yorker). 6. Are classroom effects small in K-2 education?  And which values are we teaching our kids anyway? The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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“Two big names in European writing win literature Nobels”

I chuckled at that FT headline, fortunately the on-line version names Olga Tokarczuk and Peter Handke in its header. Can you imagine a sports header: “Big name wins NBA most valuable player award.”  No, they would name the “big name” because that big name is in fact big. I still think Stephen King should get one.  I didn’t enjoy trying to read Tokarczuk, though I suspect she is a very good writer in Polish.  By Handke I can recommend his Sorrow of Dreams, a...

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The low interest rate century

During the Great Recession, I argued that low interest rates were the new normal and that during the 21st century people would be constantly complaining about “bubbles”. But even I never envisioned rates being this low. Ten-year bond yields are still 20 basis points above the 2016 lows, while 30-year bond yields have been hitting all-time record lows. Why the difference? In my view, the 10-year yield is a bit more influenced by cyclical factors, and the economy was a bit weaker...

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What do you say now?

Back in 2016, I pushed back against the conventional wisdom that Americans were opposed to trade and that this explained the rise of Trump. Even then the polls didn’t show that. Of course I was viewed as naive—the zeitgeist was all about the China shock, deindustrialization in the Rust Belt, the rise of populism, etc. Didn’t I know that neoliberalism was passé, it had failed us? OK, so how do things look today? So do you guys still believe that Trump’s views on trade...

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Trump wants a deal, but does China?

How do I know that? Because Trump said so: President Donald Trump said in a Twitter post that he plans to meet with Liu on Friday, adding that it’s a “big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, but do I?” Wait, isn’t that the exact opposite? Yes it is. But Trump always says the exact opposite of what’s true. A perfect phone call is a disastrous phone call. A traitor is a patriot. The man who respects women more than any guy other actually respects them less...

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