Sunday , August 18 2019
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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Saturday assorted links

1. Should suicide prevention be a three-digit number? (NYT) 2. “On a per capita basis, Sweden probably sustains professional liberals better than any other country in Europe, usually far better, and maybe even better than England.” 3. The progress of carbon sequestration. 4. The culture that is Wales: “Violent movement would activate a water jet to soak users, automatically open the doors and sound an alarm.” 5. The architecture of postwar Polish churches. The post...

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Recessions are not forecastable

I’m seeing too many people assuming that a recession will occur within the next year or so. That’s certainly possible, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that recessions are not forecastable. This looks like a trend, doesn’t it? I’ve argued that long term interest rates reflect NGDP growth.  That’s presumably still true, but the linkage seems to be weakening in recent years.  NGDP growth since the mid-1990s has not slowed anywhere near as much as the decline in 30 year bond...

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A proposed three team trade

Here’s my proposed trade: Denmark sends Greenland to the US, along with a future second round pick. The US gives Alaska back to Russia. Russia sends Kaliningrad and two star hockey players to Denmark. The US (i.e. Trump) gets bragging rights as the second biggest country, surpassing Canada. Plus a neat new vacation spot. Alaska cruises are getting boring—Greenland’s a new toy to play with.  With global warming, it might eventually become as interesting as Iceland.  And there’s...

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Friday assorted links

1. How the life sciences actually work, very interesting. 2. Prophets of the Marginal Revolution: last month I suggested acquiring Greenland. 3. Exponents: a new neoliberal on-line magazine. 4. Be a video producer for Marginal Revolution University. 5. Google plan for disaster relief: cash transfers. The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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Thursday assorted links

1. Questions that are rarely asked. 2. No more hotel room interviewing for AEA (but are suites so different?). 3. Is North Korea losing? (NYT) 4. The most surveilled cities in the world (Atlanta making the top ten is the surprise).  I was surprised to see facial surveillance on the Venetian Grand Canal and advertised as such. The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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Key Business Cycle Indicators, August 15th

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink bold), all log normalized to 2019M01=0.  Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (7/25 release), and author’s calculations.

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The Fed thinks it’s smarter than the markets

We’ll see. . PS. I have a post on low rates over at Econlog. The good news is that the post suggests that money’s not quite as tight as it might look based on bond yields. The bad news is that money is still too tight. PPS.  Here’s a Paul Krugman tweet, discussing the Fed rate increases of 2017-18: If you wonder what a negative fiscal multiplier caused by excessive monetary offset looks like, Krugman is describing it. I actually don’t quite agree, I believe the rate...

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My Conversation with Masha Gessen

Here is the transcript and audio, here is the summary: Masha joined Tyler in New York City to answer his many questions about Russia: why was Soviet mathematics so good? What was it like meeting with Putin? Why are Russian friendships so intense? Are Russian women as strong as the stereotype suggests — and why do they all have the same few names? Is Russia more hostile to LGBT rights than other autocracies? Why did Garry Kasparov fail to make a dent in Russian politics? What did The...

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Wednesday assorted links

1. Why did it take so long to invent the bicycle? (recommended) 2. Student slacking at Chinese universities. 3. Italy’s $1 homes. 4. “Milan’s local government says that some 40 per cent of the city’s buildings have been sprayed on, about 40,000 in total.”  2006 link, but I can assure you still relevant. 5. Lee Smolin and Leibniz. 6. Diane Coyle on the study of progress. The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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