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Tag Archives: recession

Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Different Economies

Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. For single economies: United States (NBER) Euro area (CEPR/EABCN) [latest] France (Fr.Econ.Assn.) Japan (Cabinet Office) [chronology] (note: this is a government agency source) United Kingdom (NIESR) [chronology] Cross country: Economic Cycle Research Institute [chronology (PDF)] OECD (includes non-OECD economies, aggregates) Conference Board...

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Business Cycle Indicators as of June 1

Monthly GDP figures were released by IHS-Markit today, showing a rebound in April. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from March release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 6/1 for May nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light...

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Business Cycle Indicators and Inflation, End-May 2021

April personal income and consumption figures were released today, along with real manufacturing and trade industry sales. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from April release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 5/28 for May nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green),...

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Economy looks strong

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.4% annual rate in the first quarter, well above the 3.1% average growth that the U.S. experienced over 1947-2019. Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2021:Q1, with the 1947-2019 historical average (3.1%) in blue. Calculated as 400 times the difference in the natural log of GDP from the previous quarter. The new data put the recession indicator index at 0.4%, historically a...

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Nowcasts, Economic Indicators, Expectations

On the eve of the advance GDP release for Q1. Updated Figure 3 – business cycle indicators as of 4/30: [Updated] Figure 3: Nonfarm payroll employment from March release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 4/28 for April nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log...

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Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-April

Industrial production figures were released today, showing a rebound in March. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from March release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 4/1 for March nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light...

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The WSJ April Survey: Accelerating Growth Prospects

The survey results are out, and once again, the outlook improves. Figure 1: GDP actual (bold black), WSJ April survey mean (blue), February (red), December (green), October (light blue), CBO estimate of potential GDP (gray), all in billions Ch.2012$, on log scale. Forecasted levels calculated by cumulating growth rates to latest GDP level reported. Source: BEA (2020Q4 3rd release), WSJ surveys (various), CBO (February 2021), and author’s calculations. The implied output gap by 2022Q2 is...

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Proxy Measures for the Cyclical Component of GDP

The output gap is a key concept in macro. Students in my courses have asked about the characteristics of some of the proxies. Here are some representative examples. Figure 1: Cyclical component from Hodrick-Prescott filter (blue), from Baxter-King band pass filter (red), Hamilton filter (green), and output gap from CBO (gray), all in logs, estimated from 1967-2020 data. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA 2020Q4 2nd release, CBO (February 2021), NBER, and author’s...

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The American Rescue Plan – GDP Impact Assessed

Goldman Sachs (Phillips/Briggs/Mericle, 3/13) document some aspects of the American Rescue Plan, signed into law by President Biden. Source: Goldman Sachs (Phillips/Briggs/Mericle, 3/13). Goldman Sachs outlines their estimates of the fiscal impulse resulting from the ARP. Source: Goldman Sachs (Phillips/Briggs/Mericle, 3/13). Peak impact is estimated for 2021Q2, at a 7 percentage point higher level of GDP. This estimate is predicated upon multipliers of a certain size (note interestingly...

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The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators as of 5 March

The positive surprise in nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment — 379K vs Bloomberg consensus of 182K — was good news. However, it’s important to place this in context. NFP is 9.5 million lower (i.e., 6.2% lower) than the NBER peak in February 2020. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the  NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 3/3 for February nonfarm payroll employment (light blue square), industrial...

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