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Tag Archives: recession

Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-September

Industrial production finally rises above levels in 2020M02 (the latest NBER peak). We now have the following picture of the macroeconomy (for some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from August release (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized...

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The Outlook – The August Survey of Professional Forecasters

Growth prospects decelerate, while the CPI level looks higher, according to the August Survey of Professional Forecasters. Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), forecasted GDP from WSJ July survey (red), forecasted GDP from May SPF (light blue), forecasted GDP from August SPF (dark blue), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR. Source: BEA, 2021Q2 advance release, WSJ July survey, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters (various), NBER and author’s calculations. The downshift in...

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Messages from the 21Q2 GDP Advance Release: No Economy Is an Island

With apologies to John Donne. Jim provided some key points in his Thursday post regarding the 21Q2 advance figures.  Here are my additional takeaways: (1) the Administration’s forecast locked down in February looks prescient; (2) Final sales were higher than GDP, (3) exports have not buttressed growth, partly because of slow rest-of-world growth, (4) price growth is a rising share of nominal GDP growth. Growth Disappointment (Relative to June…) First, the GDP release in context of...

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Business Cycle Indicators for End-July 2021

Consumption, personal income and St. Louis Fed’s real manufacturing and trade industry sales were released today. The July employment situation will be released next Friday. This is the picture today. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from June release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 7/30 for July nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black),...

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Guest Contribution: “Economics of the Pandemic in Asia, 2020”

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Calla Wiemer (President, American Committee on Asian Economic Studies). Asian economies have been weathering the pandemic very differently. At one extreme, the Philippines saw GDP contract by 9.5 percent in 2020, while at the other, Bangladesh logged growth of 3.8 percent. This piece draws highlights from a 3-part series posted on the Asia Economics Blog which assesses various channels of economic impact of the pandemic and considers...

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Business Cycle Indicators and Retail Sales as of Mid-July 2021

Industrial production was released yesterday, and retail sales today. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from June release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 7/16 for July nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve,...

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The Global Outlook

Tweet          This set of questions and answers appears in Capital Magazine in July 2021, translated into Turkish. – There is a second and third wave of coronavirus in many countries while also vaccines are being delivered. How do you see the outlook for the global economy against this backdrop? How has the world economy performed since the beginning of the pandemic? JF: The world economy has performed about as well as could be expected, if one takes as given the pandemic and the...

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GDP Forecasts from CBO and IMF [updated 7/2]

CBO released an Update to its Budget and Economic Outlook, while the IMF released a mission concluding statement for its Article IV review of the United States. Here are the implied GDP  levels for year-end 2021 [and updated CBO potential GDP, h/t Paweł Skrzypczyński] Figure 1: GDP as reported (black), Atlanta Fed nowcast (thin black line to 2021Q2), Administration (red square), Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue triangle), FT-IGM (pink circle), CBO as projected in June (orange *),...

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Business Cycle Indicators as of July 1

IHS-MarkIt monthly GDP for May down 0.1%, while Bloomberg consensus for June nonfarm payrolls is for a 700K increase. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from May release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 7/1 for June nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log...

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Business Cycle Indicators as of June 27

Personal income and consumption for May were released last week, as well as the April manufacturing and trade industry sales figure. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from May release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 6/27 for June nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink),...

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