Wednesday , April 21 2021
Home / Tag Archives: positivity rate

Tag Archives: positivity rate

ND COVID Update

I will get back to the moving average representations and other analysis soon but I wanted to try and think about this from a different visualization. In general I think it is accepted with this, and any disease for that matter, that you get exposure to the disease which shows up with positives, positives lead to hospitalizations, and hospitalizations lead (unfortunately) to deaths. So how are the county positives looking? I look at two different measures, the seven day total positivity...

Read More »

ND State COVID Update, 11 November 2020

The state COVID data system was down yesterday so I was not able to update graphs so we have a bit of a gap but not much really. It would be nice to report a dramatic reversal, but no such luck. The overall state positivity rate continues to increase up with the 7 day centered MA approaching the 17.5% level, and recent observations make it likely to continue the increase. ND still leads in testing per capita but that is not helping as the positives continue to increase at an...

Read More »

ND County COVID Update, 09 November 2020

The numbers continue to move in the wrong direction. It is pretty much as simple as that. The big western North Dakota counties positivity rate continues to accelerate past the level in the other counties. Williams looks set to eclipse 20% positivity without a major reversal. The other counties remain at levels flirting with 15%. The increase in positivity for Ward county clearly coincides with the increase in deaths there unfortunately. Grand Forks and Williams remain lower...

Read More »

ND COVID Update, 09 November 2020

The Governor gave another press conference today describing the situation in a way very similar to what I detailed over the last few weeks. We are at, or near, an exponential growth situation for virus cases. The Governor’s message was about strain on the health network in the state, which is a real concern going forward. Positivity rates continue to increase and are spiking in that exponential fashion. The volume of cases mean that difficult cases are increasing and thus so are...

Read More »

ND County Covid Data, Update 08 November 2020

The positivity data for the different counties (15 day MA) shows all the positivity rates for all the counties rising, with Ward county still uncomfortably high. However, all the counties are looking to eclipse 15% soon. The widespread incidence of COVID indicated here corresponds well with the death information in the next graph. All counties are seeing increases in deaths, with the pace of increase highest in Ward county as well as the fact that Ward is narrowing the gap in...

Read More »

North Dakota COVID Update, 08 November 2020

The COVID-19 situation is still not looking good in the state. We are seeing the various metrics continue to move in the wrong direction. The positivity rate for susceptible test encounters continues to increase. The 15-day MA is well above 12.5% and the 7-day MA is above 15%. These thresholds are important indicators of the level of community spread and the risks in the region. I also took a look at the number of individuals tested, that is, only counting a person once,...

Read More »

ND positivity rates, Update 06 November 2020

I changed the centered moving average from 14 days to 15 days. Why? With 15 days there is a natural center date so that is one reason. A 15 day moving average is not going to look significantly different from a 14 day moving average, so that is reason two. The idea behind the moving average at this length is that the state of North Dakota reports the 14 day average, and it coincides with the typical incubation period. We see the consistent increase in the moving average since...

Read More »

ND COVID MA Positivity, 02 November 2020

The daily positivity rate continued above 10% in today’s release. What we are seeing is the continued increase regardless of testing levels. The state is just under the 12.5% positivity rate by this measure right now and only 2 of the last 6 days were below this level expect a continued increase. The same situation is bearing out when we look at the positivity rate with total tests. The immediate future looks ripe for increases in the centered moving average. The...

Read More »

Metro Area Counties, Updated 01 November 2020

David Economist and economic historian with an interest in population analysis and demographic methods. Especially interested in natural disasters and disruptions to economic activity and changes in population dynamics, as well as fiscal and monetary policy with forecasting implications. Husband, father, Cubs fan. View all posts by David

Read More »