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Tag Archives: North Dakota

Census Pulse Survey for ND

Business conditions and the return to “normal” (hardly an objective term) are a frequent topic of discussion on the radio. The Census Bureau conduct a survey and it does break it out by state looking at business conditions relative to pre-pandemic circumstances as well as other questions. I am pulling out some of the highlights from the survey round complete 12/26/2021. So what did I learn? About the same percentage of firms report no issues with hiring employees as those that...

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ND Labor Market Update (JOLTS)

Inflation and labor markets dominate the news right now, and this is probably appropriate in terms of the concerns of most people calling the radio. There are worries about prices and the erosion of purchasing power, and then broader concerns about the health and status of the labor market. The broader concerns are not necessarily directly personal, focusing at times on worries about the overarching success possible if there is a market that does not work. In this post I take a...

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North Dakota Fertility Boom (December 2021 Discussion)

In the last post I looked at births (find it here). I ended by pointing out the population of women could be different due to the underlying oil boom North Dakota experienced at that time. So there are a few ways we might see some changes. We might see some changes for a given year within a certain age category. The next graph plots this out for us to see. There is some change in shape age specific fertility rate from year to year, however the shape remains largely the same....

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A Boom in North Dakota Births? (Dec. 2021 Discussion)

There is nothing like a good conference to stimulate the mind and motivate you, even when that conference is online and 7 hours ahead. That issue aside it was great hearing the discussions about “Pandemic babies” and COVID impacts on births. I am not going to get into that discussion yet, but turn the focus back to pre-COVID and fracking effects. The oil boom in North Dakota was a transformational event. I think very few, if any, dispute that point. The demographic impacts are...

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ND Births, The Early COVID Data

Even before COVID there were concerns about the trajectory of births in the US. It seemed people were having fewer and fewer children, something the various issues surrounding COVID did not deter, at least in terms of the speculation. It is only recently that we acquired data allowing us to see if COVID is changing individual behavior. A little side note here. Many of the speeches and presentations I give are to non-technical audiences and when talking about births you often talk...

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Inflation in the ND Region

Like most regions the West North Central (WNC), which includes North Dakota, experienced inflation over the last year. That’s right, the last year. Let me say plainly, inflation is not a phenomenon of the last month, or even 6 months. Inflation started its current upward ascent in June of 2020 and has not looked back, and only gained momentum. This region is in the center of the country which poses a few problems, particularly the supply chain. When you hear about all kinds of...

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Veteran Population in North Dakota

David Economist and economic historian with an interest in population analysis and demographic methods. Especially interested in natural disasters and disruptions to economic activity and changes in population dynamics, as well as fiscal and monetary policy with forecasting implications. Husband, father, Cubs fan. View all posts by David

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ND COVID CASES AGE 0-9

Despite COVID fatigue hitting everyone the disease is still present. The recent availability of vaccine doses for ages 5-11 seems a good reason to look at the data for the young. I aggregate the case data from the daily level to monthly and take a look comparing the months. As mentioned in prior posts it is not a surprise to see the cases count for the youngest age range to be up because more kids are in school, that is, fewer are in some kind of remote option. More kids is a...

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North Dakota Oil Still Recovering

I have not posted about oil lately, perhaps for obvious reasons. The COVID-led decline is still a thing, though off the low levels of the past. What does this situation look like? Current production amounts go back to 2018 levels really (that is the last time we hit those levels on the upswing). We are off the lows of the COIVD decline though, which is clearly a good thing. The graph here is alright, but I think looking at the percentage change from year ago levels will be more...

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North Dakota Natural Increase

A pivot to the demographic seems in order right now. Labor force, COVID, economic growth, and most other topics I discuss here and on the radio depend on population growth. I say it often, population is the most significant binding constraint on the economy of North Dakota right now. “We need more labor” is a mantra from most business sectors, but we are not getting there without more population. Right now if one business in one location in North Dakota increases employees, it is likely...

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