Saturday , June 6 2020
Home / Tag Archives: New Posts (page 2)

Tag Archives: New Posts

Back-up evidence for WaPo piece on most important econ lessons of the decade

Here are the companion figures to my WaPo piece today on econ lessons of the decade. 1) The unemployment rate can fall a lot lower than most economists thought without triggering inflationary pressures. 2) Budget deficits cannot be assumed to place upward pressure on interest rates. 3) Weak worker bargaining power has long been a factor driving inequality. In the last decade, the increasing clout of certain employers has joined the mix. Source: NY Times 4) Progressive health care reform,...

Read More »

CBPPs best graphs of 2019!

For a certain breed of wonk and nerd, it’s not the holiday season until some of CBPP’s best graphs of the year are collected and briefly annotated. This year, Kathleen Bryant and I took a stab at picking some of the figures we thought were most important to document the economic and policy landscape facing economically vulnerable people. One of the most important and positive trends of the last decade was the decline in share of Americans without health coverage due to the Affordable Care...

Read More »

November job gains beat expectations, as Wal S’yas (reversed Say’s Law) takes hold

Payrolls rose by 266,000 last month and the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 3.5%. Hourly wage growth for all private sector workers remained where it has been, up 3.1%, year-over-year, while the pay of lower-wage workers–the 82% of payroll employment that’s blue collar in factories and non-managers in services–has been trending up a bit, and was up 3.7% last month (a slight tick down from 3.8% in October). With inflation running around 2%, this translates into solid real wage gains...

Read More »

Things to like, not like, and to be unsure about re Sen. Warren’s M4A plan (along with a mea culpa)

Along with many others, I’ve had lots of things to say about Sen. Warren’s Medicare for All (M4A) plan, some positive, some negative, some head-scratchy. But because the issue is so politically loaded, both in terms of the Democratic primary and conservative antipathy toward this or any other idea that expands government’s role in health care, and also because of my association with VP Biden, it’s been hard to have a straight up policy discussion. In a CNBC TV debate, for example, I was asked...

Read More »

October jobs report: Robust job growth minus wage pressure equals NOT-full-employment.

Payrolls rose 128,000 last month, well above expectations for 85K, and job gains in the prior two months were revised up by 95,000 (a sizable upward revision). Also, the October gain of 128K was dampened by the absence of about 50,000 striking workers at General Motors who are now back at work as the strike ended. In other words, despite slowing global growth, political uncertainty, weakening trade flows hit by the trade war, the U.S. job creation machine remains in high gear. What’s...

Read More »

September jobs report: solid, slowing, and not yet at full employment

Payrolls rose 136,000 last month and the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5 percent, its lowest rate since the late 1960s. Though the payroll number missed analysts’ expectations (~145,000), the more reliable 3-month average came in at a healthy 157,000, strong enough to put downward pressure on unemployment (the prior two months of payroll data were revised up by 45,000 jobs). Our monthly smoother takes 3, 6, and 12-month averages of monthly job gains to help pull out the underlying trend out...

Read More »

Got work? The highly responsive labor supply of low-income, prime-age workers.

[Note: this is draft of a forthcoming paper for CBPP’s Full Employment Project. I posted it here first as I will be referencing its findings at a Brookings inflation conference on Thurs, Oct 3 By Jared Bernstein and Keith Bentele[i] Introduction The benefits to running a hot labor market continue to be evident both in the data and in anecdotal accounts. In our last paper, we examined the monetary policy rationale for allowing high-pressure labor markets to continue to flourish.[ii] We also...

Read More »

The King of the Blues Birthday!

Google tells me that today would have been BB King’s 94’th birthday, so I got my booty over to YouTube to queue up one of my fav BB jams–Let’s Get Down to Business! BB crushes it, of course, but also dig busy-yet-funky electric bass playing by Jerry Jemmott. “Whatever made us breakup baby I don’t know til today But if it was my fault I swear I’ll change my ways!” Share the post "The King of the Blues Birthday!"

Read More »

How hot labor markets can lead to misleading median comparisons.

The Census income and earnings data sometimes have a confusing characteristic that is not uncommon in these sorts of data, especially in periods of tight labor markets, as was 2018. The issue has to do with changes in medians from one year to the next. For example, the data that came out this morning showed that for both men and women full-time, full-year workers, real annual earnings rose 3.4 and 3.3 percent, respectively, 2017-18. But for all ft/fy workers, combining both genders, earnings...

Read More »

The 2018 Poverty, Income, and health coverage results: a tale of three forces.

This morning, the Census Bureau released new data on health insurance coverage, poverty, and middle-class incomes. While the data are for last year, they shine an important light on key aspects of families’ living standards that we don’t get from the more up-to-date macro-indicators, like GDP and unemployment. As the economic recovery that began over a decade ago persisted through 2018, poverty once again fell, by half-a-percentage point, from 12.3 percent to 11.8 percent. Other results from...

Read More »