Friday , May 29 2020
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Tag Archives: Medicine

The case for a market allocation of vaccines

Or a partial such allocation, at least.  Here is my latest Bloomberg column: The renowned economist Erik Brynjolfsson recently asked: “At least so far, I haven’t seen any one suggesting to use the market system to allocate vaccines. Not even those who strongly advocate it in other areas. Why is that?” As one of several people copied at the bottom of the tweet, I feel compelled to take up the challenge. I readily admit that a significant portion of the vaccines, when they come, should be...

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Our regulatory state is failing us

You don’t think airlines can just provide hand sanitizer to passengers, do you? On Tuesday the FAA wrote to American Airlines granting permission, and the letter they sent (.pdf) offers a window into process the airline had to go to in order to secure the government’s blessing. Tuesday’s correspondence came from the FAA’s American Airlines Certificate Management Office in Irving, Texas. Imagine having a local office of a federal agency dedicated to your business, with its own letterhead....

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Stockholm City’s Elderly Care and Covid19

Upwards of 70 percent of the Covid19 death toll in Sweden has been people in elderly care services (as of mid-May 2020). We summarize the Covid19 tragedy in elderly care in Sweden, particularly in the City of Stockholm. We explain the institutional structure of elderly care administration and service provision. Those who died of Covid19 in Stockholm’s nursing homes had a life-remaining median somewhere in the range of 5 to 9 months. Having contextualized the Covid19 problem in City of...

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In developing countries the coronavirus deaths are younger

In Brazil, 15 percent of deaths have been people under 50 — a rate more than 10 times greater than in Italy or Spain. In Mexico, the trend is even more stark: Nearly one-fourth of the dead have been between 25 and 49. In India, officials reported this month that nearly half of the dead were younger than 60. In Rio de Janeiro state, more than two-thirds of hospitalizations are for people younger than 49. And here are the speculations: Because population density is so much higher in much of...

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Fairfax County fact of the day

Fairfax County Health Department responded to my request for nursing home/longterm care facility deaths from COVID-19. As of May 22, there have been 249 coronavirus deaths in these facilities. That’s ***75 percent*** of all Fairfax County deaths from coronavirus as of today (330) Here is the link, via Alex T.  For epidemiology, shouldn’t those numbers be in a separate model altogether? Also, it would be very interesting to test the performance of the private sector vs. public...

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Which NBA teams will gain in relative prospects from the shutdown?

The Los Angeles Lakers, far and away. The most valuable stars, such as LBJ, have their own private gyms and work-out rooms, often in their homes.  They have stayed in the best shape, and of course LBJ has the discipline too.  Those star players also are the most used to unusual circumstances (All-star games, Olympics, etc.) and being accustomed to higher than average levels of pressure.  They rely less on crowd support than do the role players, noting it is the latter who benefit much more...

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The Japan model

So what is the Japan model? First, it is a cluster-based approach, derived from a hypothesis obtained from an epidemiological study based on Chinese data and conducted on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that entered the port of Yokohama on February 3, 2020. This hypothesis accounts for the many passengers who were not infected with the coronavirus despite having had close contact with infected persons. It posits that the explosive increase in infected persons is a result of the high...

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How will Fairfax County evolve?

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: The immediate future of my region thus appears to be a major demand shock to the stores, acceptable continuing employment for the upper middle class, and economic devastation for lower-income individuals. The traditional mix of government-connected employment and retail will swing heavily in the direction of government. In essence, the federal government will pay its employees to click on Amazon while working from home....

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My (second) Conversation with Paul Romer

Interesting throughout, here is the audio and transcript.  Here is the summary: Paul Romer makes his second appearance to discuss the failings of economics, how his mass testing plan for COVID-19 would work, what aspect of epidemiology concern him, how the FDA is slowing a better response, his ideas for reopening schools and Major League Baseball, where he agrees with Weyl’s test plan, why charter cities need a new name, what went wrong with Honduras, the development trajectory for...

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Will Covid-19 expose the ghost firms?

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: Demand for in-restaurant dining is likely to fall as well, though estimates vary. Since the average small business carries less than a month’s worth of liquid reserves, and the wait for a vaccine is likely to be at least a year, many restaurants will simply be unable to survive the shrinking of the market. I call these places ghost restaurants because they are still walking around, so to speak, visible to us and listed on...

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