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Tag Archives: Macro

Blanchard: Reopening the Economy—Noted

Olivier Blanchard: Reopening the Economy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrFIFWgDXuk&feature=youtu.be: 'Where we are depends on whether you're in Europe or not and where in Europe you are. But there are, I think, commonalities.... The stop was a policy decision based on very good health policy reasons. So the worst was at the beginning. From then on, it just goes up. The question is: at what speed? There I see three phases: In the very short run you end lockdown and allow firms to...

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Magical monetary theory full review

I read Stephanie Kelton's book, The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy,” and wrote this review for the Wall Street Journal. Now that 30 days have passed I can post the whole thing.  I approached this task with an open mind. What I had heard of MMT has some overlap with fiscal theory of the price level, on which I work, and I hoped to see some commonality.I was disappointed.The review:Modern monetary theory, known as MMT, erupted...

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Was the Great Recession More Damaging Than the Great Depression?

Brad DeLong: Was the Great Recession More Damaging Than the Great Depression?: Your parents’—more likely your grandparents’—Great Depression opened with the then-biggest-ever stock market crash, continued with the largest-ever sustained decline in GDP, and ended with a near-decade of subnormal production and employment. Yet 11 years after the 1929 crash, national income per worker was 10 percent above its 1929 level. The next year, 12 years after, it was 28 percent above its 1929 level....

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Paulus: COVID Was Never “Under Control”—Noted

A conceit of my in-draft economic history of the long twentieth century is that it was the American century, and that it came to an end, finally and ultimately, on November 8, 2016—when the second minority government led by somebody really not up to the job of president in anyone’s estimation took control. But I confess I did not think that even Donald Trump and his enablers could do so much damage. And I confess that I did not think that the most competent rank of Trump enablers would be...

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Goolsbee: ‘Rona Cases, Not Lockdowns, Depress the Economy—Noted

Hell of a moment to have a large, loud indoor gathering in Arizona: Austan Goolsbee: 'The results from March-May https://twitter.com/Austan_Goolsbee/status/1275575900499775488 suggest that the fact that cases are back on the rise is very ominous not just for public health but for the economy. If people get scared again, a lot of activity may start to tank.... Short version: they don't do much. Of the 60% drop in consumer activity, only 7 came from shutdown orders. Fear of the virus is...

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Trying to Prevent Another Subpar Recovery

A slow recovery from the coronavirus recession will be a societal policy choice. But I think that it is a societal policy choice that we are going to make. Adam Ozimek is trying to push back the tide, and it is a tide: Adam Ozimek: '[Labor market] matching matters https://twitter.com/ModeledBehavior/status/1269979410947506177. The argument from the G[reat ]R[ecession] was never that recovery could happen overnight, but that it could have happened significantly faster... ...A...

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What To Watch For in the Employment Report

Equitable Growth alumnus Nick Bunker is closely watching the labor market in advance of this week’s employment report. The employment report will be one of our first significant clues as to the extent to which the coronavirus supply shock is turning into a demand shock as well: Nick Bunker: May 2020 Jobs Day Preview: Tracking the Spread of the Coronavirus Shock https://www.hiringlab.org/2020/06/02/may-2020-jobs-day-preview/: ‘The coronavirus has devastated the US economy, leading to...

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What the Democrats Must Do: Project Syndicate

Full Column: Although the United States has entered a period of deepening social strife and economic depression, the Republicans who are in charge have neither the ideas nor the competence to do anything about it. The Democrats must start planning to lead, starting with a commitment to full employment. BERKELEY – Like almost all other countries, the United States has become poorer since the COVID-19 pandemic began, because Americans can no longer engage in valuable activities that...

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Acting Comptroller Brian Brooks Is Way Out of Line

Equitable Growth’s Amanda Fischer finds the acting Comptroller of the Currency going way beyond his competence, apparently in order to try to curry favor with his political masters. It is his job to help avoid unnecessary negative financial and economic fallout from necessary public health measures. It is not his job to try to put constraints that would prevent undertaking necessary and desirable public health measures: Amanda Fischer: ‘About this letter from Acting @USOCC head Brian...

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Why Do We Need Automatic Triggers?

The first and most crucial tasks of economic policy in the coronavirus public health crisis are to keep the supply shock from becoming a distributional shock and from becoming a demand shock as well. Successfully accomplishing these ranks requires, first, a great increase in social insurance spending: in a country as rich as this one is, nobody should be thrown in the poverty and destitution and have to deal with those problems as well as with the disease. The expansion of social...

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