Wednesday , July 28 2021
Home / Tag Archives: Macro

Tag Archives: Macro

Afternoon roundup

The browser tabs...The Internet Archive will help improve access to a lot of books currently held by the National Library. Naturally, this upsets some people. Mike Joy wins a battle over what "natural levels" of nitrate in aquifers might mean.Places where the local schools are funded by higher levels of government wind up trying to privatize the public schools through zoning. Everything's tradeoffs though, eh? If schools are funded by the local communities, poor places get really bad...

Read More »

Another case for Cat Bonds

This week's column in the Dom draws on the joint RBNZ-Treasury workshop on post-Covid macroeconomic policy that preceded last week's Covid-truncated NZ Association of Economists conference. A snippet:Overall, the workshop felt designed to warm the economic policy community to higher public debt levels for a longer period. The risks of the approach were noted: interest rates can rise, and there will be problems if they do.And the approach only makes sense if projects funded by that debt...

Read More »

Bitcoin as PAYGO Pension Plan. And Land.

Suppose the government starts a Pay As You GO (unfunded) pension plan. What the young pay into the plan today is what the old take out today. The first generation gets lucky; they get a pension paid out, but never put anything in.  And if the plan ever gets wound up, the last generation of old get unlucky; they paid in, but never get anything out. Bitcoin is the same. What the young pay in to buy Bitcoin today is what the old take out when they sell Bitcoin today. The first generation...

Read More »

Ip on Bidenomics

Greg Ip has a great column in the WSJ on Bidenomics.  It's not long, it's so well written that it's hard to condense the good parts, and you should really read it all. There is an intellectual framework to Bidenomics, and with that a scarily more durable move on economic policy. There used to be "certain rules about how the world worked: governments should avoid deficits, liberalize trade and trust in markets. Taxes and social programs shouldn’t discourage work."By...

Read More »

If you wanna run hot you gotta run steady

Canadian economist Richard Lipsey would always insist that the Phillips Curve is a curve, and not a straight line. Maybe because wages and prices are stickier down than up. Or maybe because unemployment can't go below 0%. Or both. Here's why that matters for macroeconomic policy: Suppose the central bank wants 2% inflation on average, over the longer term. One way to get that result would be to flip a coin, every year, or every decade, or whatever. If it's heads, the central bank "runs...

Read More »

Inflation outlook at NRO. 1970s all over again?

Essay on monetary policy in National Review Online. Short version: The Fed's monetary policy has returned to the intellectual framework of the late 1960s. At best "expectations" now float around as an independent force, manipulable by speeches, but not tied to patterns of action by the Fed as analysis since the 1980s would require. If you follow the conventional reading of how monetary policy works, that observation leads to a natural prediction:  we're on the verge of reliving...

Read More »

Loanable Funds Redux

Stop talking about "saving". Talk instead about "demand for assets". You will be happier, and your head will be clearer. Your students too will be happier, and their heads will be clearer. Demand for assets is a thing; saving is a non-thing (a residual). Things are clearer than non-things. Saving is the part of your income you do not spend on consumption. OK, so what do you do with your income, if you don't spend it on consumption? You buy/accumulate assets. Assets are things too. Like...

Read More »

What Lifted Trump Could Sink Biden—Project Syndicate

J. Bradford DeLong: What Lifted Trump Could Sink Biden https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/austerity-will-kill-the-income-growth-that-helped-trump-by-j-bradford-delong-2020-12?referral=8420da: ‘Donald Trump managed to receive 74 million votes despite countless failures for the simple reason that he presided over three years of a high-pressure economy in which wages grew rapidly. If the Democrats ignore this lesson or listen to fiscal hawks already pushing for austerity, they will...

Read More »

DeLongTODAY: Fear of Rising Interest Rates No Reason to Shy Away from Fiscal Expansion

DeLongTODAY: Fear of Rising Interest Rates No Reason to Shy Away from Fiscal Expansion I am Brad DeLong, an economics professor at the University of California at Berkeley and a sometime Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. This is the weekly DeLongToday briefing. Here I hold forth here on the Leigh Bureau’s vimeo platform on my guesses as to what I think you most need to know about what our economy is doing to us right now. I promised Wes Neff when he agreed to provide the...

Read More »

Unemployment Insurance Claims Signal Renewed Recession

The Macro News: Th 2020-12-10: Starting last June with every week the US economy got better—at least, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment insurance fell when we calculate it on a seasonally adjusted basis. Some of this was people who had been receiving unemployment insurance finding jobs. Some of this was people reaching the end of the benefits to which they were entitled. Nevertheless, if you were people were flowing into the pool of those receiving unemployment...

Read More »