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Tag Archives: International

Summarizing China’s Short Term Economic Outlook

Wells Fargo Economics analyses the extent of the current slowdown, and contemplates the impact on regional economies. Here’s the heat map: Source: McKenna/Guo, “China Economic Gauge and Sensitivity”, Wells Fargo Economics, 20 Sep 2021, Figure 1. From the report: Our dashboard (Figure 1) suggests the short-term outlook for China’s economy is indeed deteriorating, consistent with the multiple downward revisions we have made to our GDP forecast over the past few months. Given the signals our...

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Guest Contribution: “Is policy effective at promoting the international role of the renminbi?”

Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Georgios Georgiadis (European Central Bank), Helena Le Mezo (European Central Bank) , Arnaud Mehl (European Central Bank), and Cédric Tille (Graduate Institute for International and Development Studies, Geneva). The views expressed in this column are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the Eurosystem. They should not be reported as such. The dollar occupies a dominant role in...

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Trilemma Indices Updated

The International Trilemma — sometimes called the Impossible Trinity — is the proposition that a country cannot pursue simultaneously full capital mobility, full exchange rate stability, and full monetary autonomy. Source: Ito (2021). In a series of papers Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito and I calculated indices to measure each of these dimensions, and evaluated the implications of the choices countries made ( [ACI2010]  [ACI2011] [ACI2016] [ACI2017] [ACI2020]). These indices have just been...

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“Do Central Banks Rebalance Their Currency Shares?”

Some do; some don’t. Revised paper by me, Hiro Ito,  and Robert McCauley. From the abstract: Do central banks rebalance their currency shares? The answer matters because the dollar’s predominant role in large official reserve holdings means that widespread rebalancing requires central banks to buy (sell) a depreciating (appreciating) dollar, stabilizing its value against other major currencies. We hypothesize that larger reserve holdings have led central banks to approach their investment...

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Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index, Updated to 2019

We first constructed the index nearly 20 years ago! See the website for the data. Here’s a map of financial openness in 2019 (normalized index, 1 to 0). The darker, the more open. The description of the current dataset is Ito and Chinn (2021). Hiro Ito and I constructed the index because there was few single, widely available and consistently updated measures of financial openness at the time, with the exception of Quinn’s (APSR, 1997) measure, which at the time was more limited in...

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Guest Contribution: “The G20 agenda in the pandemic’s year 2”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy  School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A appeared at Project Syndicate. Rome will host the 2021 Summit of the G20 Heads of Government in October. Officials of member countries, including The finance ministers and central bank governors, are preparing for it. The G20 meeting will come at a time of great uncertainty as concerns...

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Guest Contribution: “Inflation Prospects: A Difficult Transition for Policymakers”

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jongrim Ha (Senior Economist), M. Ayhan Kose (Chief Economist and Director) and Franziska Ohnsorge (Manager) from the World Bank’s Prospects Group. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this blog are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. The COVID-19 pandemic plunged the global economy into its...

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China Growth in Question

The FT article “China Covid outbreak linked to Delta variant weighs on economy” (Hale, White, Shepherd) makes some grim reading, with several other articles having a similar take, citing Goldman Sachs. I was gripped by a sense of déjà vu. In my first lecture in January 2020 I cited the uncertainties for the trade/macro outlook given events in Wuhan. From FT: Goldman Sachs downgraded its expectations for real gross domestic product growth over the third quarter to 2.3 per cent quarter on...

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Messages from the 21Q2 GDP Advance Release: No Economy Is an Island

With apologies to John Donne. Jim provided some key points in his Thursday post regarding the 21Q2 advance figures.  Here are my additional takeaways: (1) the Administration’s forecast locked down in February looks prescient; (2) Final sales were higher than GDP, (3) exports have not buttressed growth, partly because of slow rest-of-world growth, (4) price growth is a rising share of nominal GDP growth. Growth Disappointment (Relative to June…) First, the GDP release in context of...

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Guest Contribution: “Economics of the Pandemic in Asia, 2020”

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Calla Wiemer (President, American Committee on Asian Economic Studies). Asian economies have been weathering the pandemic very differently. At one extreme, the Philippines saw GDP contract by 9.5 percent in 2020, while at the other, Bangladesh logged growth of 3.8 percent. This piece draws highlights from a 3-part series posted on the Asia Economics Blog which assesses various channels of economic impact of the pandemic and considers...

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