Sunday , June 20 2021
Home / Tag Archives: International Monetary Fund

Tag Archives: International Monetary Fund

Trump’s Corporate Tax Cut Was a Flop

This article is a wonky edition of Paul Krugman’s free newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it.Hello readers! Until 2017 I had a blog at The Times that was distinct from my column; it was, for the most part, where I put my wonkier, less readable work, often the homework that underlay the regular column. It was, you might say, where I talked to other dismal scientists, although anyone could listen in.When The Times folded the blog into the regular online paper, I retained the ability...

Read More »

What’s wrong with US Treasury claim of Vietnamese undervaluation

TweetAugust 27, 2020 — The US Treasury’s tendentious interpretation of the IMF’s External Balance Approach this week found a 4.7 % undervaluation of Vietnam’s currency.  It may pave the way for the US Commerce Department to impose countervailing duties (in a case involving the tire market), for the first time in a currency case. See Mark Sobel’s useful update of August 27. The Treasury claimed to find undervaluation despite small Vietnamese current account surpluses and fx reserves equal...

Read More »

Defining recessions when negative growth is too common or too rare

TweetJune 20, 2020 — This post follows up on “What Determines When a Recession is Recession?” which pointed out some drawbacks of defining a recession by two negative quarters of growth. In some countries there is another, more fundamental, basis for questioning the two-quarter rule for determining recession, or any GDP-based rule. Some countries experience sharp slowdowns or periods of diminished economic activity and yet their long-term trend growth rates are either so high or so low...

Read More »

How China Compares Internationally in New GDP Figures

TweetMay 31, 2020 — The World Bank on May 19, as it does every six years, released the results of the most recent International Comparison Program (ICP), which measures price levels and GDPs across 176 countries.  The new results are striking.  It is surprising that they have received almost no attention so far, perhaps overshadowed by all things coronavirus. For the first time, the ICP shows China’s total real income as slightly larger than the US.  It reports that China’s GDP was...

Read More »

Gopinath follows Obstfeld at the IMF, in a great tradition

Dec. 10, 2018 — Maury Obstfeld this month completes his exemplary term as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. His departing economic outlook foresees slowing growth in the world economy in 2019 and 2020. Gita Gopinath, my Harvard colleague, will take up the position in the new year.  (Technically the title is Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department.) In the last three decades there have been 8 Economic Counsellors of the IMF.  As it happens, every one...

Read More »

Mnuchin and Manipulation of Money

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin already finds himself hemmed in on all sides. Domestic constraints come from the promises that he and President Trump have made and the laws of arithmetic.    How, for example, is he ever going to be able to reconcile the specific tax proposals that candidate Trump campaigned on with the promise of the “Mnuchin rule” that taxes won’t be cut for the rich?  That is even harder than the traditional conundrum that faces Republican Treasury Secretaries:...

Read More »

What if Greece got massive debt relief but no one admitted it? (Part 1.5)

After years of failed attempts to stabilise the Greek economy, the Greek government finally got debt relief in 2012. As we explained in our previous post, interest payments fell by more than half between 2011 and 2013. Since the 2012 modifications, Greece’s sovereign debt service costs have been significantly smaller as a share of total output than in Italy or Portugal. Yet it hasn’t helped much. The economy continues to contract and Greece’s depression since 2008 is among the absolute...

Read More »

The IMF and the Greek government’s financial assets, part 2

Last week, we revealed a significant discrepancy between the Greek government’s net debt as reported by the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook database and what you’d get if you replicated the IMF’s standard methodology for netting out “financial assets corresponding to debt instruments” using data published by the Bank of Greece. Neither the IMF nor the Bank of Greece had responded to our requests for an explanation of the discrepancy at the time we wrote our original...

Read More »

Fiscal Education for the G-7

As the G-7 Leaders gather in Ise-Shima, Japan, on May 26-27, the still fragile global economy is on their minds.  They would like a road map to address stagnant growth. Their approach should be to talk less about currency wars and more about fiscal policy. Fiscal policy vs. monetary policy Under the conditions that have prevailed in most major countries over the last ten years, we have reason to think that fiscal policy is a more powerful tool for affecting the level of economic activity, as...

Read More »

Is the IMF under-counting the Greek government’s financial assets?

According to the International Monetary Fund, the Greek government’s financial assets were worth around €3bn in 2015, or less than 2 per cent of GDP. That’s what you get if you take the difference between general government gross debt and net debt, as reported in the latest version of the World Economic Outlook Database. Yet according to our independent analysis of data from the Bank of Greece — and using the IMF’s preferred definitions of what should and shouldn’t be counted — the Greek...

Read More »