Thursday , October 17 2019
Home / Tag Archives: Housing

Tag Archives: Housing

Real Housing Prices Stabilizing … or Falling

Case-Shiller through July, Zillow through August. Figure 1: Case-Shiller 20 city home price index (blue, left log scale), Zillow forecast of Case-Shiller August value (blue +, left log scale), and Zillow single-family home prices (brown, right log scale). Source: S&P via FRED, Zillow, BLS, and author’s calculations. As Calculated Risk notes, Zillow makes predictions for the Case-Shiller index. They forecast the August 2019 m/m growth rate (not annualized) in the 20 city composite at...

Read More »

Does Market Economics understand either Markets or Economics?

Over in our Insights newsletter, I go through a bit more of the background materials on the government's National Policy Statement on sensitive soils.  I OIAed the supporting cabinet paper, which MPI released after the Ombudsman's office gave them a very helpful hurry-up. Thanks Ombudsman's office!The rest of MPI's materials are here.And last week, Treasury passed along their advice on this stuff (another OIA request). I expect it'll be up on their proactive release site in due course;...

Read More »

Don’t hate the council, hate the game

Labour's talked a good game around solving the housing crisis. But unless they manage to have councils see growth as being in councils' interest, it's all a bit hopeless. There are always margins on which councils can stymie growth, if they want to.  I'd covered the problem in my fortnightly column over at Newsroom. Fundamentally, the housing crisis emerged because not enough houses were being built. Not enough houses were being built because council zoning rules prevented sufficient...

Read More »

Mixing up the heroes and villains

Sometimes, it feels like media is in a bizarro world, where the good guys are the bad guys and vice versa.  Over at Newsroom, the influence of developers in local politics is a worry: More importantly, according to Simon Chapple, the director of Victoria University’s Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, the claim that property developers are just amplifying the voices of people they agree with doesn’t stack up. “You can rule out ideology, because they’re donating to...

Read More »

Afternoon roundup, and around the traps

The worthies on the closing of the browser tabs.Nice comparison of vacant housing to transitional unemployment, in an American context. Filing this one away here for the next time somebody notices a few empty houses and decides that policy should do something about it. It comes up too often.  Susan Edmunds over at Stuff looks at household income distributions; the piece includes a short bit from me on AHC- and BHC- incomes.  Universities need to lift their darned game.  AUT not only caved at...

Read More »

Economy still growing, but…

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the second quarter of 2019. That’s pretty near the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2009:Q3.Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2019:Q2, with the 1947-2019 historical average (3.1%) in blue and post-Great-Recession average (2.2%) in red. That brought the Recession Indicator Index to 2.9%, consistent with the favorable low levels we’ve seen...

Read More »

Youth Parliament and fixing the housing market

New Zealand's Youth Parliament called me in to provide testimony about policies that could improve economic growth without worsening disparities in wealth.  I suggested that they take a close look at housing markets - as well as regulatory structures that work to stymie competition and entrench existing interests. The Committee of the Youth Parliament took up some of my recommendations in their report - along with some of the recommendations from the presenter from Living Wage Aotearoa....

Read More »

Demotion, or second chance?

My Newsroom column from last week looks at the Twyfortunity in the cabinet shuffle - belatedly posted here as I was off at the NZAE meetings last week.  Cabinet shuffles provide great journalistic set-pieces.For the politics-as-sport contingent, it provides all the narrative arc of changes to the Black Caps line-up for the World Cup: winners and losers, who’s in and who’s out, and whether the changes will do more to help the team score political runs or to defend against the Opposition’s...

Read More »

The rent is too damn high

NPR covered the Democratic candidates' plans to address housing issues:[Julian] Castro would provide housing vouchers to all families who need help. Right now, only 1 in 4 families eligible for housing assistance gets it. He would also increase government spending on new affordable housing by tens of billions of dollars a year and provide a refundable tax credit to the millions of low- and moderate-income renters who have to spend more than 30% of their incomes on housing.I'm actually...

Read More »

Recession Anxieties, June 2019

Different forward looking models show increasing likelihood of a recession. Most recent readings of key series highlighted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) suggest a peak, although the critical indicator — nonfarm payroll employment — continues to rise, albeit slowly. Predictions from Financial Markets Figure 1: Probability of recession in indicated month, based on spreads 12 months prior, from 10yr-3mo term spread (blue), 10yr-3mo term spread and Moody’s Baa-10yr...

Read More »