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Tag Archives: Health Care

Delta Impact

From Bloomberg, Matthews and Shah, “High-Frequency Charts Show U.S. Economy Softening From Delta”: The delta variant has muted the progress of the U.S. economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, with consumers putting off some leisure spending and businesses delaying a return to normal operations, according to a number of high-frequency reports that show softness in August. The Bloomberg article includes two graphs: Some other high frequency indicators give a mixed message, for certain...

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Decelerating Florida Economic Activity thru 7/31 and Covid-19 Fatalities Rising

Florida is decelerating faster than the US, according to the Baumeister et al.   Weekly Economic Conditions Index (discussed in this post) just released today. Figure 1: Baumeister et al. Weekly Economic Conditions Indicators for US (black) and Florida (red), percentage point deviation from annualized trend national growth rate. NBER recession dates shaded gray, from beginning of February to end of April. Source: Weekly State Level Economic Conditions, accessed 8/6, NBER. The Baumeister et...

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CDC Ensemble Model Ups Predicted Florida Weekly Deaths

Compare the CDC ensemble forecast released today, as compared to that generated the previous week and discussed in this post. Source: CDC, August 2 ensemble forecast. The August 2 forecasted Florida weekly death rate for 8/23 is about 690, up from a bit under 600 (I’m eyeballing here) indicated in the July 26 forecast shown below. Source: CDC, July 26 ensemble forecast. Here are the detail figures for individual forecasts for the August 2 forecast, and the July 26 forecast. Source: CDC,...

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If Hospitalizations Lead Fatalities: Prospects for Florida

With large shares of populations vaccinated, case counts are no longer a good predictor of fatalities arising from Covid-19. Hospitalization might prove better (and ICU hospitalizations even better). The statistics do not augur well, particularly for Florida. Source: GS CovidTracker, August 2, 2021. Obviously, Florida remains a big problem when you consider its 21 million population, and that it accounts for 5.1% of US GDP (as of 2019Q4). For comparison, California, as the economically...

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Guest Contribution: “The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy  School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A appeared at Project Syndicate. The underlying econometrics are spelled out in “The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting: An Econometric Analysis.” I am grateful for the excellent research assistance of Randy Kotti. Ever since the 1960s, we have heard the cliché, “If they can put a man on the...

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Covid-19 Forecasts, One Year Ago and Today

One year ago (7/29): Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by The Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic (dark red), IHME forecast (light red). Source: CDC 7/29/2020 vintage, Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic accessed 7/29/2020, IHME forecast of 7/22/2020, and author’s calculations. And today (7/24): Figure 2: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19...

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IHME Projections for Deaths per capita In One Month, Two Months

IHME updated its forecasts yesterday. First the time series for total excess deaths: Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021. So, as of today, excess deaths are not particularly high — but looking forward one month, two months, the outlook is grim for populations in certain states. Map for July 23, 2021 – per hundred thousand Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021. Map for August 23, 2021 – per hundred thousand Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021. Map for September 23, 2021 – per hundred thousand ...

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The Delta Variant: Macro Implications

From DB, does the UK presage the US? Source: Yared, “The case against cases,” Deutsche Bank, June 29, 2021. Goldman Sachs presents data on the share of cases now accounted for by Delta Variant in various countries. Source: Nathan, et al. What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research, June 30, 2021. While cases might rise rapidly in parts of the US that have low vaccination rates, Yared et al. conclude that given the timing (summer), and the fact that hospitalization rates haven’t risen in tandem...

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GDP by State, 2021Q1

BEA released figures today. From the release: Durable goods manufacturing; professional, scientific, and technical services; and information services were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP nationally (table 2). Accommodation and food services was the leading contributor to the increase in Nevada. Accommodation and food services increased 16.9 percent nationally and contributed to the increases in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Other highlights Durable goods...

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Guest Contribution: “Statistics and the Pandemic”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy  School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A appeared at Project Syndicate. Mark Twain said, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”  Too often, the pandemic has unnecessarily allowed scope for the sort of popular suspicions reflected in Twain’s bon mot. Statistics are in fact a critical component of...

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