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Tag Archives: Global Macro

The Distributional Consequences of Preferential Trade Liberalization: Firm-Level Evidence

photo: Dirk Dallas Abstract We analyze data covering the near universe of U.S. foreign direct investment and disaggregated tariff data for all preferential trade agreements (PTA) signed by the United States. We find that preferential trade liberalization disproportionately benefits the largest and most productive multinationals. Specifically, our results indicate that U.S. preferential tariffs increase sales to the United States from the most competitive multinational...

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Will Migration Across the Mediterranean Dominate Migration Across the Rio Grande?

The massive migration from Mexico to the United States that began in the 1980s and ended in 2007 was one of the largest in history (Hanson and McIntosh). Nine years after the mass migration, the issue remains politically sensitive, and Donald Trump’s advocacy of building a Wall along the southern border contributed to his winning the Republican nomination for President. The mass movement of people was not predicted. It followed a long decline in the percentage of...

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Russia And Saudi Arabia Playing A Risky Game Ahead Of OPEC’s Meeting

Having suffered massive oil revenue shortages and budget deficits since the oil price collapse in 2014, Russia and Saudi Arabia have now agreed to cooperate on stabilizing the oil market. What this “cooperation” will actually mean – freezing production levels, cutting them, ramping them up or keeping the status quo, remains to be seen. The result of cooperation may, to some degree, depend on Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s assessment of each other’s intentions and credence...

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The Search for an Effective Macro Policy

photo: Nicolas Raymond Economic growth in the advanced economies seems stalled. This summer the IMF projected increases in GDP in these economies of 1.8% for both 2016 and 2017. This included growth of 2.2% this year in the U.S. and 2.5% in 2017, 1.6% and 1.4% in the Eurozone in 2016 and 2017 respectively, and 0.3% and 0.1% in Japan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has called on the Group of 20 countries to use all available tools to raise growth, as has the IMF’s...

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Why Gazprom is Losing Markets?

photo: Ricardo Cabral Fares Kilzie – CREON Energy, Chairman of the Board of Directors Kirill Rodionov – IndexBox Marketing, Oil&Gas Analyst This summer, Alexey Miller began his fourth tenure as Gazprom’s CEO. In February, he was reelected without a dissenting vote by the company’s board of directors. That was hardly a surprise; Miller is trusted by Vladimir Putin, whose deputy he had been in the Committee of external relations of Saint Petersburg mayor’s office....

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The Duterte Whirlwind: The Reawakening of the Philippines

photo: canencia The new Philippine president is waging a tough drug war, pushing economic growth domestically and greater pragmatism in foreign policy that could contribute to Southeast Asia’s future. Internationally, Rodrigo Duterte, the new president of the Philippines, has been portrayed as a “dangerous populist”. That’s a gross caricature. In the elections, he leaned on the nationalistic, social-democratic PDP-Laban (lit. Philippine Democratic Party-People’s...

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Global Outlook: The Next Five Years

Key takeaway – Over the next five years, mega-trends will not support an acceleration of global growth. Consumption, investment and productivity will remain sluggish, inflation low. Macro fundamentals are weak: high debt and unemployment will constrain performance. Developed markets (DMs) will stagnate and emerging markets (EMs) will struggle. Flat real incomes and rising inequality are major political risks. Instability, populism and authoritarianism will rise....

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Staying safe during the war on inequality

It’s not often you hear investment strategists write so cheerfully about redistribution, but then again it’s 2016, so anything goes: Happily, the fiscal flip this summer has thus far been more biased toward redistribution & Keynesianism rather than protectionism. For example: In Japan Abe has hinted at an economic package at the upper end of the ¥20-30tn range with ¥13tn in fiscal measures, possibly to include 3% min. wage hike and ¥15,000 cash to low income earners; In Europe the...

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Turkey’s Failed Coup: What’s Next?

photo: RadikalBlog Key takeaway – In Turkey, a coup attempt failed in less than 12 hours. President Erdoğan has declared that “the government is in control” and he is “not going to compromise”. What is next? Likely, Erdoğan’s popularity will increase, and constitutional changes will lead to a presidential system. Instability will continue, crackdowns on dissent will become the norm and further bloodshed is possible. In the short term, the international community will...

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