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Tag Archives: gdp

Consumer Spending Increase Saves 4Q 2016 GDP Estimate from a Decline

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute February 28, 2017 - BEA Revision Revises 4th Quarter 2016 GDP Growth To 1.85%: In their second estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economic growth rate was +1.85%, essentially unchanged from the +1.87% previously reported but down by nearly half (-1.68%) from the prior quarter. Follow up: Although there was no material change in the headline number, the composition...

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Gross Attention to the Gross Domestic Product

Written by Dan Lieberman, Alternativeinsight  Prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves primarily as an accounting function for the United States government  ̶  one statement in a description of national accounts. By summarizing the monetary value and sources of services and production, the GDP reports all expenditures in the U.S.economy. Anxiously awaited, the economic statistic is employed to indicate and forecast...

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Inventories and Low Deflator Boost Low GDP Estimate

BEA Estimates 4th Quarter 2016 GDP at 1.87% by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their first (preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economic growth rate was +1.87%, down by nearly half (-1.66%) from the prior quarter. Follow up: The quarter to quarter decline in the headline growth rate came from a number of sources: the growth of consumer spending on services was more than halved (down...

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Third Quarter 2016 GDP Growth is Impressive

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their third and final estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +3.53%, up +0.38% from their previous estimate and up +2.11% from the prior quarter. Follow up: The improvement in the headline number was broadly based: +0.14% came from higher consumer spending, +0.17% was from more fixed investment spending, and +0.09 of it came from additional governmental...

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Adjustments to 3Q 2016 GDP Include Increased Consumer Spending

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute BEA Estimates 3rd Quarter 2016 GDP Growth to be 3.15%: In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +3.15%, up +0.24% from their previous estimate and up +1.73% from the prior quarter. Follow up: Most of the improvement in the headline number came from a +0.42% upward revision to consumer spending. Spending on consumer goods was revised upward by...

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Riddle Me This: Why Has Employment Gained and Sales Declined?

Written by Steven Hansen Using technical jargon, the employment numbers and business sales are seriously out of whack. Sales are in contraction and employment is in expansion - an event usually associated with recessions. Follow up: There are issues with defining the problem. For one thing, employment data includes a certain amount of double counting (the same person holding two or more jobs and being counted as two or more people). A second problem, I have serious reservations about the...

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Inventories, Exports and Government Spending Boost GDP

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute October 28, 2016 - BEA Estimates 3rd Quarter 2016 GDP Growth to be 2.91% In their first ("preliminary") estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +2.91%, up +1.49% from the prior quarter.   Most of the reported improvement in the headline number came from a +1.77% quarter-to-quarter gain in inventories, a +0.96% rise in exports, and a +0.39% uptick in governmental...

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China’s property market keeps everyone guessing

The Chinese government knows it has to do something about the run-away house price inflation in its major (Tier 1 and 2) cities. And it is. As SocGen’s Wei Yao says, since late September, “20-strong cities have either reintroduced or stepped up tightening on the housing sector.” It’s far less than the peak of 46 Yao says we saw in the previous cycle but it’s not bad going and the cities involved cover “more than 20% of national sales and new starts volume, more than 40% of national sales...

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USA Government Is Starving Social Programs?

Written by Steven Hansen Americans have been convinced that due to demographics and general waste, social programs are out of control and need to be reined in. True or Not? Follow up: I would like to disclose my biases - anything big (like big government, big business, the wealthiest 0.1%) ends up doing a growing number of bad things.  It is dangerous to design systems where power can be concentrated.  That said, even small systems cannot be perfect. So there is no argument that there is...

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Are The USA Government and Business, Not The Consumer, The Real Drivers Of the Economy?

Written by Steven Hansen According to Wikipedia: A consumer economy describes an economy driven by consumer spending as a percent of its gross domestic product, as opposed to the other major components of GDP (gross private domestic investment, government spending, and imports netted against exports). Follow up: Using Gross Domestic Product, the economy looks this way - and is driven by consumers (66% consumer driven). GDP starts with cash flow data, separates income from...

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