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Tag Archives: employment

Yet More Scary Graphs of Manufacturing: Midwest Edition

In every single state in the Great Lakes region, save Michigan, manufacturing employment has either peaked or (charitably) gone on a growth hiatus. Figure 1: Manufacturing employment by state, in logs, 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations. While national manufacturing is still rising (albeit very slowly, essentially flat), it remains less than 0.1% above January levels. And manufacturing employment continues to grow in California (interestingly, a state — California —  by the...

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Assessing the Business Cycle, Mid-May 2019

Several key series look like they have peaked; nowcasts indicate slowing growth. Forward looking indicators look “iffy”. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2018M12=0.  Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (5/3 release), and author’s calculations. Several...

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Data Sources, Again [Updated]

[Updated to include CoRev’s analysis of trends 4/16/2019] I have repeated requests for raw data used in this post, part of which is plotted in this graph. Reader CoRev writes: …Menzie has admitted he mis-attributed his full range of sources used, and has yet to provide ALL the data he used. This is not true. I didn’t admit mis-attribution. All I can conclude is that there is some confusion over terms. First, there is some confusion over whether the data differs between BLS, or BLS via...

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I Spent a Couple Trillion Dollars, and All I Got Was Trend Employment Growth!

Reader JBH writes: “Employment has done marvelously well under this president.” I laughed and laughed and laughed when I read this. Why? Take a look: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), and stochastic trend (red). Stochastic trend estimated using 2010-2016 data, and regression of first log difference on a constant. Source: BLS March 2019 employment situation release, and author’s calculations. We are doing as well as we were from 2010-2016, even after massive tax cuts and the...

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What Did $1.4 Billion Buy in Manufacturing Employment?

Not much…Wisconsin manufacturing employment up to February; January revised down… Figure 1:  Wisconsin manufacturing employment from December 2018 release (red), January 2019 (blue), February 2019 (black), 000’s, s.a. Benchmarked data shaded green. Source: BLS, DWD.  The Wisconsin Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit has cost $1.4 billion through FY2019, over twice the estimate. Since the phase-in of the Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit, Wisconsin manufacturing employment has lagged...

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Self-Professed Policy Analyst Predicts Minimum-Wage Induced Employment Disaster [CORRECTED]

[Graph corrected 3/18 of 3/15 post– apologies to all for the error of using NY-wide series in the earlier post] New York City. Inveterate commenter Steven Kopits cites an article from some publication called “Liberty Nation”: 76.50% of full service restaurant respondents reduced employee hours, and 36.30% eliminated jobs in 2018, in response to mandated wage increases. 75% of limited service restaurant respondents report that they will reduce employee hours, and 53.10% will eliminate jobs...

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Self-Professed Policy Analyst Predicts Minimum-Wage Induced Employment Disaster

In New York City. Inveterate commenter Steven Kopits cites an article from some publication called “Liberty Nation”: 76.50% of full service restaurant respondents reduced employee hours, and 36.30% eliminated jobs in 2018, in response to mandated wage increases. 75% of limited service restaurant respondents report that they will reduce employee hours, and 53.10% will eliminate jobs in 2019 as a result of mandated wage increases that took effect on December 31, 2018. This is a pretty...

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Is California in Recession? (Part XV)

Back a little over a year ago, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession. Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017] Today’s release of the 2018Q3 state GDP figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred. Figure 1:...

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