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Tag Archives: employment

Is California in Recession (Part XVII)

June employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from one and a half years ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession. Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017] The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question. It’s (still) unlikely...

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Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth in Context

Blockbuster (absolute level) growth number for nonfarm payroll employment. But does the percentage growth rate in NFP dispell the prospect of recession in the near future? I don’t think so. Figure 1: Growth rate in nonfarm payroll employment, month-on-month annualized (blue), and year-on-year (red). NBER recession dates shaded gray. Green dashed line at June 2016 M/M annualized growth rate. Orange shading denotes Trump administration. All growth rates calculated as log differences. Source:...

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Why Friends Don’t Let Friends Apply Deterministic Time Trends to Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Suppose you wanted to detect anomalies in nonfarm payroll employment (NFP). Would you want to apply a filter that relied on trend stationarity of NFP (like reader CoRev does in his “anomaly analysis”)? My short answer is “no”… First, consider what a series of (deterministic) trend estimates looks like, over 20 year spans, 1947-2019. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, 000’s, s.a. (black), and linear deterministic trends estimated over 20 year subsamples. NBER defined recession dates...

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Yet More Scary Graphs of Manufacturing: Midwest Edition

In every single state in the Great Lakes region, save Michigan, manufacturing employment has either peaked or (charitably) gone on a growth hiatus. Figure 1: Manufacturing employment by state, in logs, 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations. While national manufacturing is still rising (albeit very slowly, essentially flat), it remains less than 0.1% above January levels. And manufacturing employment continues to grow in California (interestingly, a state — California —  by the...

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Assessing the Business Cycle, Mid-May 2019

Several key series look like they have peaked; nowcasts indicate slowing growth. Forward looking indicators look “iffy”. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2018M12=0.  Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (5/3 release), and author’s calculations. Several...

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Data Sources, Again [Updated]

[Updated to include CoRev’s analysis of trends 4/16/2019] I have repeated requests for raw data used in this post, part of which is plotted in this graph. Reader CoRev writes: …Menzie has admitted he mis-attributed his full range of sources used, and has yet to provide ALL the data he used. This is not true. I didn’t admit mis-attribution. All I can conclude is that there is some confusion over terms. First, there is some confusion over whether the data differs between BLS, or BLS via...

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I Spent a Couple Trillion Dollars, and All I Got Was Trend Employment Growth!

Reader JBH writes: “Employment has done marvelously well under this president.” I laughed and laughed and laughed when I read this. Why? Take a look: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), and stochastic trend (red). Stochastic trend estimated using 2010-2016 data, and regression of first log difference on a constant. Source: BLS March 2019 employment situation release, and author’s calculations. We are doing as well as we were from 2010-2016, even after massive tax cuts and the...

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What Did $1.4 Billion Buy in Manufacturing Employment?

Not much…Wisconsin manufacturing employment up to February; January revised down… Figure 1:  Wisconsin manufacturing employment from December 2018 release (red), January 2019 (blue), February 2019 (black), 000’s, s.a. Benchmarked data shaded green. Source: BLS, DWD.  The Wisconsin Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit has cost $1.4 billion through FY2019, over twice the estimate. Since the phase-in of the Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit, Wisconsin manufacturing employment has lagged...

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