Wednesday , April 21 2021
Home / Tag Archives: elections

Tag Archives: elections

Look at Article II of the Constitution before Censoring Trump

Article II, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution says [emphasis added], Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors, equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress....I am not a lawyer, let alone Constitutional scholar.  I welcome such scholars to engage and clarify what follows (suspecting that most of these scholars are currently retained by either Rs or Ds and therefore...

Read More »

Canaries in the Coal Mine

]]> Although we still do not know the winner of the electoral college, it is clear that the polls were systematically wrong in the swing states and several others.  Here is a recap, with links, of what we knew in advance but few dared discuss openly. Election forecasting became an economics-free zone I wrote about this last week: (1) Better information-aggregation methods were showing less Biden lead and sometimes a Trump lead. (2) The incentives for individuals to...

Read More »

Do Election Forecasts Suffer from a Lack of Economics?

]]> Forecasts of this election are certainly missing economics.  However, lacking knowledge and skills of the other tools and methods for election forecasting, I cannot say how much the absence of economics matters.  My only purpose here is to cite the missing economics and attempt to assess the direction of the forecast bias as it pertains to the Presidential election.  The missing economics fit into three categories: information aggregation, voter incentives to tell the truth, and...

Read More »

Can we think about politics from Blair onwards in one chart? and what it means for Blue Labour

This is an experiment. You can judge how successful it is. I am trying it because with this election there has been a lot of talk about a revival in Blue Labour to recapture the Red Wall. The Conservatives have been playing to socially conservative voters since at least William (‘a foreign land’) Hague. So why has the strategy succeeded so well in 2019 when it has had at best modest success before now? We can represent all this in a simple diagram that is now widely used The precise...

Read More »

Labour’s position on Brexit is not a compromise, but is taking the wrong side

The elections for the European parliament showed us the implications of a basic imbalance in politics today. Brexit is the dominant issue, yet both of the major parties support one side, the Brexit side. The Labour leadership tells itself that it is trying to bring the two sides together. It tells itself, by aiming for a softer Brexit than May wanted, it is trying to compromise. But as someone once said, Brexit is Brexit, and those voting in the European elections agreed. To see why Labour’s...

Read More »

The response to the European elections will define politics for some time

When I woke up on Monday morning and saw the European election results, I wrote this tweet“Woke up to a triumph for Remain. On latest vote count from BBC, UK clear Remain 40.3%, clear No Deal 34.9%, Lab 14.1% Con 9,1%. Clear Remain even just beat No Deal Brexit in England. If that is not the headline you are seeing, it is another example of Brexit bias I'm afraid.” For the next two days I got hundreds of messages telling me I was delusional (or worse), and often including a funny picture...

Read More »

How the media can frame our understanding of elections

What will the European elections mean for the future of Brexit? We know that Remain is clearly ahead in polls and has been for some time, but an actual election has additional validity. What better to focus on the EU issue than elections to the European parliament. So quite rightly everyone will be looking to the result to gauge popular opinion. There is only one problem. The obvious thing to look at is votes cast, because these are unaffected by a voting system that penalises small parties....

Read More »

The election asylum

New Zealand is mostly the Outside of the Asylum. The rules around what you can and can't do on election day - not so much. Lots of things are banned. Back in 2011, I'd written: How about using clever special characters to tweet the binomial formulation of the voter's probability of decisiveness and thereby discouraged mathematicians' turnout? How about tweets pointing to George Smith's tracts against voting coupled with text saying "Don't read this, he's wrong"?Would a blog post very...

Read More »

Popular vote count: directions of causality

I live in Illinois, where it was well-known that Mrs. Clinton's votes would far outnumber Mr. Trump's.This fall, I did not see any Trump-for-president ads on local TV or in local newspapers. Perhaps the absence of Trump ads was to be expected, because the Trump campaign saw no electoral-vote gain by advertising here.But I saw MANY Clinton-for-president ads. If Trump ads would not affect electoral votes, then why would Clinton ads?One could argue, even without the benefit of hindsight, that...

Read More »