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Tag Archives: economic indicators

GDP Forecasts

The October Wall Street Journal survey of economists, now quarterly, is out. A substantial downshift in the forecasted level of GDP is apparent. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), November 2020 WSJ survey mean (red), July 2021 survey mean (blue), and October 2021 survey mean (green). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, WSJ (various surveys), NBER, and author’s calculations. In early November 2020, the average forecast was for a slow closing of the output gap (using potential...

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Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-September

Industrial production finally rises above levels in 2020M02 (the latest NBER peak). We now have the following picture of the macroeconomy (for some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from August release (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized...

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How Long Can Florida’s Economy Grow with the Governor’s Current Public Health Measures Stance?

Actually, I should write “Anti-Public Health Measures Stance”… The CDC released the ensemble forecasts of 8/16 yesterday. Source: CDC, accessed 8/19/2021. The CDC’s central forecast is for Florida new weekly deaths for the week of September 11th to be 1461, with an interquartile range of (1249, 1739). The NY Times reports as of 8/19 that the 7 day moving average as 138.1, or the 7 day moving sum as 967. While attention is rightly paid to the overwhelmed nature of the hospital system,...

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The Outlook – The August Survey of Professional Forecasters

Growth prospects decelerate, while the CPI level looks higher, according to the August Survey of Professional Forecasters. Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), forecasted GDP from WSJ July survey (red), forecasted GDP from May SPF (light blue), forecasted GDP from August SPF (dark blue), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR. Source: BEA, 2021Q2 advance release, WSJ July survey, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters (various), NBER and author’s calculations. The downshift in...

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GDP at (Covid) Risk? – and State and Behavioral Response

As of last week, GDP originating in counties with rising death rates accounts for 60% of total; still below the 80% recorded in the Winter. Source: Deutsche Bank, Covid Tracker, 5 August 2021. Source: Deutsche Bank, Covid Tracker, 5 August 2021. These are results based on reported data as of 4 August. It is unclear what the economic implications of high Covid death rates would be. If state authorities impose public health measures such as restricting indoor business activity, then one...

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Decelerating Florida Economic Activity thru 7/31 and Covid-19 Fatalities Rising

Florida is decelerating faster than the US, according to the Baumeister et al.   Weekly Economic Conditions Index (discussed in this post) just released today. Figure 1: Baumeister et al. Weekly Economic Conditions Indicators for US (black) and Florida (red), percentage point deviation from annualized trend national growth rate. NBER recession dates shaded gray, from beginning of February to end of April. Source: Weekly State Level Economic Conditions, accessed 8/6, NBER. The Baumeister et...

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If Hospitalizations Lead Fatalities: Prospects for Florida

With large shares of populations vaccinated, case counts are no longer a good predictor of fatalities arising from Covid-19. Hospitalization might prove better (and ICU hospitalizations even better). The statistics do not augur well, particularly for Florida. Source: GS CovidTracker, August 2, 2021. Obviously, Florida remains a big problem when you consider its 21 million population, and that it accounts for 5.1% of US GDP (as of 2019Q4). For comparison, California, as the economically...

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Business Cycle Indicators for End-July 2021

Consumption, personal income and St. Louis Fed’s real manufacturing and trade industry sales were released today. The July employment situation will be released next Friday. This is the picture today. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from June release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 7/30 for July nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black),...

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The economic recovery continues

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter. That’s well above the 3.1% average growth that the U.S. experienced over 1947-2019. Kudos to Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta economist Patrick Higgins, whose nowcast of 6.4% that Menzie highlighted yesterday anticipated today’s release on the nose. Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2021:Q2, with the 1947-2019 historical average (3.1%) in blue....

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Forecasts, on the Eve of the 2021Q2 Advance Release [Updated]

Q2 GDP will be released tomorrow morning, and Jim will be providing his insights on the numbers. Today, the IMF released its July 2021 World Economic Outlook forecasts, which gives us and opportunity to recap where we stand. [Updated 7/29, 1pm Pacific] Figure 1: GDP as reported (black), Administration FY22 forecast (blue triangle), CBO June forecast (red line), FT-IGM (light green triangle),  IMF July WEO (green x), potential GDP as estimated by CBO in July 2021 (thick dark gray line)....

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