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Tag Archives: economic indicators

A Sugar High?

A lot of chatter about a sugar high coming from the passage of the American Rescue Plan, previous fiscal and monetary measures, combined with the increase in CPI inflation. Time to step back and assess. First, the chatter: Figure 1: Google Trends count for “Sugar High”, accessed 6/13/2021. Examples, here and here. Will the economy overheat? Will the overheating cause inflation? Will this cause the Fed to over-react so as to crash the economy (or will the financial imbalances cause a crash...

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More “Reverse Radical” than “V”, but more “V” than “Swoosh”

A little less than a year ago, I think I was in the “Swoosh” camp; I’m still in the “Reverse Radical” camp now, but it is amazing how fast GDP is rising. Figure 1: GDP (black), Survey of Professional Forecasters May mean (red), IHS-Markit nowcast (blue), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (red), all in billions Chained 2012$, SAAR, on log scale. Implied GDP level calculated by adding growth rates to 2021Q1 reported. Source: BEA (2021Q1 2nd release), Philadelphia Fed, IHS-Markit, Atlanta Fed, and author’s...

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Business Cycle Indicators and Inflation, End-May 2021

April personal income and consumption figures were released today, along with real manufacturing and trade industry sales. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from April release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 5/28 for May nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green),...

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Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-May

April industrial production figures were released yesterday. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from April release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 4/30 for April nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in...

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Distributional Data from the National Income and Product Accounts

Using an incredibly powerful device called “the Google”, I have discovered new prototype data releases regarding the distributional aspects of real personal income.  Here are some figures depicting income accruing to select household income percentiles, contributions to income growth therefrom, and Gini coefficients. These figures are from this Working Paper entitled “Measuring Inequality in the National Accounts” (updated 2020). Source: Fixler, Gindelsky, Johnson, “Measuring Inequality in...

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Economy looks strong

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.4% annual rate in the first quarter, well above the 3.1% average growth that the U.S. experienced over 1947-2019. Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2021:Q1, with the 1947-2019 historical average (3.1%) in blue. Calculated as 400 times the difference in the natural log of GDP from the previous quarter. The new data put the recession indicator index at 0.4%, historically a...

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Nowcasts, Economic Indicators, Expectations

On the eve of the advance GDP release for Q1. Updated Figure 3 – business cycle indicators as of 4/30: [Updated] Figure 3: Nonfarm payroll employment from March release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 4/28 for April nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log...

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Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-April

Industrial production figures were released today, showing a rebound in March. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from March release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 4/1 for March nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light...

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The WSJ April Survey: Accelerating Growth Prospects

The survey results are out, and once again, the outlook improves. Figure 1: GDP actual (bold black), WSJ April survey mean (blue), February (red), December (green), October (light blue), CBO estimate of potential GDP (gray), all in billions Ch.2012$, on log scale. Forecasted levels calculated by cumulating growth rates to latest GDP level reported. Source: BEA (2020Q4 3rd release), WSJ surveys (various), CBO (February 2021), and author’s calculations. The implied output gap by 2022Q2 is...

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Estimating Potential Output

at CBO, is described in detail in this working paper. Also, here is a comparison of implied output gaps from various organizations, through 2016. Source: Shackleton (2018). Updated CBO projection here. Discussion of comparison to statistical filters in this post from a few days ago, which includes this graph: Figure 1: Cyclical component from Hodrick-Prescott filter (blue), from Baxter-King band pass filter (red), Hamilton filter (green), and output gap from CBO (gray), all in logs,...

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