Friday , November 15 2019
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Tag Archives: Demography

A different age group in ND

So I often write about retired and young populations in North Dakota, but thought I would switch it up a bit this week. In particular, I am looking at the age group nearer to retirement, those aged 45 to 64. Why this grouping? Well those above 64 are at or very near retirement age and face relatively easy decisions in terms of finance constraints and other factors. Those younger have a great deal of national attention. The younger age groups rightly receive a great deal of...

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North Dakota Median Age, 2010-2018

I received several questions from media and others this week that boil down to a question of age in the state. The age profile of the state is important in terms of many aspects. First, the trajectory was bad from about 1997 on with significant departures of young and significant remaining by the older. This impacted everything from business succession planning to bank deposit management. With oil there was a change in the trajectory. The inflows were younger and the outflows were...

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Fertility Stability in North Dakota

*The data and analysis from this post are part of an ongoing population projection being down with colleagues at UND. Among all the concerns related to North Dakota the population has long been at the top of the list. This is as it should be since population is a significant constraint on economic activity. There are two possibilities for the source of the issue: fertility or migration. Why do I leave out mortality? There is no evidence that mortality experience in North Dakota...

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Natural Increase in North Dakota

I am a big believer that population drives much of the economy in North Dakota. While it may not drive everything the population represents a significant constraint on the potential growth of the state. The migration information has, for the most part, been positive these last several years. There should be similar interest in the rate of natural increase. The rate of natural increase is birth rate less death rate. At the county level it is not always positive which should not be...

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Migration & North Dakota in 2018

Immigration, legal and illegal, is clearly a hot story in the news these days. North Dakota is on an international border but it seems that even here the circumstances on the US-Mexico border are of more concern than any impending inflow of Canadians. More on that in another post. It is time to consider some numbers. There are multiple definitions of migration to consider in this post. The unit of analysis will be counties in the state of North Dakota. The measures are all net...

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Grouping Counties in ND (Technical)

Two of my colleagues (Dan Owens and Dara Morehouse (I believe in full attribution)) and I are working on population projections for the state. One of the side questions we asked ourselves (always a danger) was when looking at subregions within the state, how would we divide out the state. There are likely candidates such as dividing the state into thirds or quarters. Highway 2 and I-94 make interesting dividers as well. There are many interesting ways to do this and constraints you...

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Oil & Fertility in North Dakota

So I am following up my own post. A paper I am soon to present looks at fertility rates in North Dakota and how they were impacted by oil activity. My earlier post, Oil boom but no baby boom in ND, showed a lack of change in the age specific fertility rates for North Dakota over time related to the oil boom. That does not tell the whole story though. There are changes though that are important to highlight. Part of my research is an attempt to break out effects from price and quantity...

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Oil Boom but no baby boom in ND?

My current research focuses on fertility behavior in response to a variety of economic conditions. This includes partner and own employment type as well as in response to the changes in economic cycle. One of the latter pieces is an examination of the response to the oil boom and then bust in North Dakota. The graph below shows the last ten years or so of fertility rates by age category. It is a fertility rate because it is births divided by women in the specific child-bearing age...

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Births to Married and Unmarried Women in ND

So the population projection is going and as we work along with it you get to look at some data you did not look at in a while. Lots of recent discussion for us focuses on fertility and fertility modeling. Specifically we are trying to determine various determining factors related to births for North Dakota. This is important given the recent booms in certain sectors and in certain regions of the state. So looking at the data there was one map I decided to generate to see what it...

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Accepted to #PAA2019 !

David Economist and economic historian with an interest in population analysis and demographic methods. Especially interested in natural disasters and disruptions to economic activity and changes in population dynamics, as well as fiscal and monetary policy with forecasting implications. Husband, father, Cubs fan. View all posts by David

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