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Tag Archives: covid-19

Covid Cases Among Young Continue to Rise in ND

It is important to keep track of the COVID data because we are clearly not done with COVID yet and if new variants keep arising it seems likely it will be some time before we are done with it. The total cases are falling into a fairly clear seasonal pattern (seen below) though August and September case numbers are above the levels from the same moths in 2020. Where there is a more worrying trend is with the younger population, a significant number of whom do not have access to...

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Age 0-9 Cases Above Last Year’s Pace

North Dakota COVID case data is not looking good so far this school year. Amid all the discussion about mask policy we are missing the very real situation that this is a group without access to vaccine at all right now. As you might expect, with inconsistent human response to biological fact we see predictable, problematic results. August 2021 was 389 higher than August 2020. We are only at September 13 (for this data release, and I guess the post) and September 2021 is already...

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Age Split as a Share of Total Covid Cases

I do not want to be writing about COVID anymore than people want to read about it. The fact is the situation continues to evolve and continues to be important. The fact of the matter is that in some places schools are a front line of fights over COVID, which is just a sad, sad state of affairs. For North Dakota I looked at the two younger age groups, ages 0-9, and then add ages 10-19, taking both as a share of total cases. I include data for September to date and we can see that...

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COVID Data in ND, 9/1/2021

Governor Burgum and various health officials gave a press conference discussing the problematic trajectory for COVID in North Dakota right now. I thought I would post a few charts to try and help make clear the issue. The data here go all the way back to the beginning of COVID in North Dakota. In fact they go back to 2 days prior to the first positive test. COVID Cases in North DakotaStill well below peak levels the trajectory of cases in North Dakota is problematic. It is clearly...

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Herd Immunity in North Dakota

Let’s start with the fact that “herd immunity” is actually not terribly well defined. The definition is pretty clear, enough incidence of infection and vaccination that the spread of disease becomes unlikely. The issue for many is there is not necessarily a precise percentage we can attach here. That is actually fine, I am sure for different diseases the threshold for herd immunity would be different. However in the current situation with COVID-19 we are trying to vaccinate quickly to...

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ND County COVID Update, 11 November 2020

Positivity rates are climbing, faster in Ward and Williams than elsewhere, but they are still climbing. Burleigh, Cass, Grand Forks, and Morton counties are all increasing and are at or near 15% for positivity rates (for the 15 day MA). It is not really a surprise to see discussions about the capacity of the health system when you see these levels of positivity. Of course, with such high positivity you do get the increases in hospitalizations and the chance of more deaths. We see...

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ND State COVID Update, 11 November 2020

The state COVID data system was down yesterday so I was not able to update graphs so we have a bit of a gap but not much really. It would be nice to report a dramatic reversal, but no such luck. The overall state positivity rate continues to increase up with the 7 day centered MA approaching the 17.5% level, and recent observations make it likely to continue the increase. ND still leads in testing per capita but that is not helping as the positives continue to increase at an...

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ND County COVID Update, 09 November 2020

The numbers continue to move in the wrong direction. It is pretty much as simple as that. The big western North Dakota counties positivity rate continues to accelerate past the level in the other counties. Williams looks set to eclipse 20% positivity without a major reversal. The other counties remain at levels flirting with 15%. The increase in positivity for Ward county clearly coincides with the increase in deaths there unfortunately. Grand Forks and Williams remain lower...

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ND COVID Update, 09 November 2020

The Governor gave another press conference today describing the situation in a way very similar to what I detailed over the last few weeks. We are at, or near, an exponential growth situation for virus cases. The Governor’s message was about strain on the health network in the state, which is a real concern going forward. Positivity rates continue to increase and are spiking in that exponential fashion. The volume of cases mean that difficult cases are increasing and thus so are...

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ND County Covid Data, Update 08 November 2020

The positivity data for the different counties (15 day MA) shows all the positivity rates for all the counties rising, with Ward county still uncomfortably high. However, all the counties are looking to eclipse 15% soon. The widespread incidence of COVID indicated here corresponds well with the death information in the next graph. All counties are seeing increases in deaths, with the pace of increase highest in Ward county as well as the fact that Ward is narrowing the gap in...

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