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Tag Archives: covid-19

Herd Immunity in North Dakota

Let’s start with the fact that “herd immunity” is actually not terribly well defined. The definition is pretty clear, enough incidence of infection and vaccination that the spread of disease becomes unlikely. The issue for many is there is not necessarily a precise percentage we can attach here. That is actually fine, I am sure for different diseases the threshold for herd immunity would be different. However in the current situation with COVID-19 we are trying to vaccinate quickly to...

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ND County COVID Update, 11 November 2020

Positivity rates are climbing, faster in Ward and Williams than elsewhere, but they are still climbing. Burleigh, Cass, Grand Forks, and Morton counties are all increasing and are at or near 15% for positivity rates (for the 15 day MA). It is not really a surprise to see discussions about the capacity of the health system when you see these levels of positivity. Of course, with such high positivity you do get the increases in hospitalizations and the chance of more deaths. We see...

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ND State COVID Update, 11 November 2020

The state COVID data system was down yesterday so I was not able to update graphs so we have a bit of a gap but not much really. It would be nice to report a dramatic reversal, but no such luck. The overall state positivity rate continues to increase up with the 7 day centered MA approaching the 17.5% level, and recent observations make it likely to continue the increase. ND still leads in testing per capita but that is not helping as the positives continue to increase at an...

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ND County COVID Update, 09 November 2020

The numbers continue to move in the wrong direction. It is pretty much as simple as that. The big western North Dakota counties positivity rate continues to accelerate past the level in the other counties. Williams looks set to eclipse 20% positivity without a major reversal. The other counties remain at levels flirting with 15%. The increase in positivity for Ward county clearly coincides with the increase in deaths there unfortunately. Grand Forks and Williams remain lower...

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ND COVID Update, 09 November 2020

The Governor gave another press conference today describing the situation in a way very similar to what I detailed over the last few weeks. We are at, or near, an exponential growth situation for virus cases. The Governor’s message was about strain on the health network in the state, which is a real concern going forward. Positivity rates continue to increase and are spiking in that exponential fashion. The volume of cases mean that difficult cases are increasing and thus so are...

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ND County Covid Data, Update 08 November 2020

The positivity data for the different counties (15 day MA) shows all the positivity rates for all the counties rising, with Ward county still uncomfortably high. However, all the counties are looking to eclipse 15% soon. The widespread incidence of COVID indicated here corresponds well with the death information in the next graph. All counties are seeing increases in deaths, with the pace of increase highest in Ward county as well as the fact that Ward is narrowing the gap in...

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North Dakota COVID Update, 08 November 2020

The COVID-19 situation is still not looking good in the state. We are seeing the various metrics continue to move in the wrong direction. The positivity rate for susceptible test encounters continues to increase. The 15-day MA is well above 12.5% and the 7-day MA is above 15%. These thresholds are important indicators of the level of community spread and the risks in the region. I also took a look at the number of individuals tested, that is, only counting a person once,...

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ND positivity rates, Update 06 November 2020

I changed the centered moving average from 14 days to 15 days. Why? With 15 days there is a natural center date so that is one reason. A 15 day moving average is not going to look significantly different from a 14 day moving average, so that is reason two. The idea behind the moving average at this length is that the state of North Dakota reports the 14 day average, and it coincides with the typical incubation period. We see the consistent increase in the moving average since...

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ND Covid Deaths, update 04 November 2020

So I am updating the deaths numbers again, and I have some new graphs to post. I am still working on positivity numbers and will have new posts for that soon. The mass of deaths towards the recent end of the graph is again symptomatic of the large degree of positive cases and community spread experienced currently in North Dakota. In terms of the cumulative number of deaths, not the simple daily count as above we have: This is the cumulative sum in the state and the notable...

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ND COVID Deaths update, 03 November 2020

Just focusing on the deaths graph today. I am reworking a few of the other graphs and will start reposting them as soon as I figure out how they will look best. One thing to keep in mind with the deaths graph is that on any given day the numbers change for more than just that day. What do I mean? If you looked at the release from the ND Department of Health there were something around 15 deaths announced in today’s release. However there are only 2 deaths in the data release today...

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