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Tag Archives: consumer metrics institute

GDP Improves to Tepid Growth

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute 26 May 2017 - BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2017 GDP Growth Upward To 1.16% In their second estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the growth of the US economy upward to a +1.16% annual rate, up +0.47% from their previous estimate for the first quarter but still down nearly a percent (-0.92%) from the +2.08% reported for the fourth quarter of 2016. Follow up: Please share this article - Go...

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Consumer Spending Increase Saves 4Q 2016 GDP Estimate from a Decline

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute February 28, 2017 - BEA Revision Revises 4th Quarter 2016 GDP Growth To 1.85%: In their second estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economic growth rate was +1.85%, essentially unchanged from the +1.87% previously reported but down by nearly half (-1.68%) from the prior quarter. Follow up: Although there was no material change in the headline number, the composition...

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Inventories and Low Deflator Boost Low GDP Estimate

BEA Estimates 4th Quarter 2016 GDP at 1.87% by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their first (preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economic growth rate was +1.87%, down by nearly half (-1.66%) from the prior quarter. Follow up: The quarter to quarter decline in the headline growth rate came from a number of sources: the growth of consumer spending on services was more than halved (down...

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Third Quarter 2016 GDP Growth is Impressive

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their third and final estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +3.53%, up +0.38% from their previous estimate and up +2.11% from the prior quarter. Follow up: The improvement in the headline number was broadly based: +0.14% came from higher consumer spending, +0.17% was from more fixed investment spending, and +0.09 of it came from additional governmental...

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Adjustments to 3Q 2016 GDP Include Increased Consumer Spending

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute BEA Estimates 3rd Quarter 2016 GDP Growth to be 3.15%: In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +3.15%, up +0.24% from their previous estimate and up +1.73% from the prior quarter. Follow up: Most of the improvement in the headline number came from a +0.42% upward revision to consumer spending. Spending on consumer goods was revised upward by...

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GDP: All Growth from Consumption

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their second estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +1.09%, down -0.12% from their previous estimate but up +0.26% from the prior quarter. None of the revisions was statistically significant, with the largest line item revision (governmental spending) changing by a mere -0.11%. Follow up: The ongoing trend of commercial weakness offset by consumer spending...

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Consumers Overcome Contracting Investment and Inventory for 1.2% GDP Growth in Q2 2016

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute July 29, 2016 - BEA Estimates 2nd Quarter 2016 GDP Growth At 1.21%: In their first preliminary estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +1.21%, up 0.38% from a downwardly revised prior quarter.  Follow up:The most notable item in the report was the continued contraction of US commercial fixed investments, which subtracted -0.52% from the quarter's headline...

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1Q GDP: Upward Revisions in Investments and Exports

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their third and final estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the growth rate upward to +1.08%, up 0.26% from their previous estimate but still down -0.30% from from the +1.38% rate recorded for the fourth quarter of 2015.  Follow up:Much of upward revision came from improvements in commercial fixed investments, which were reported to have contracted at only a -0.06% annualized rate...

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GDP Growth Revised Up, Investment and Consumers Remain Weak

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their second estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the growth rate upward to +0.82%, up 0.28% from their previous estimate but still down -0.56% from from the +1.38% rate recorded for the fourth quarter of 2015. Follow up: Roughly half of the upward revision came from inventory adjustments, which were reported to have contracted at a -0.20% annualized rate -- an improvement of...

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The American Consumer is Doing Less to Support GDP Growth

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute April 28, 2016 - BEA Estimates 1st Quarter 2016 GDP Growth At +0.54%: In their first "preliminary" estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +0.54% annualized rate, down -0.84% (well more than half) from the +1.38% rate recorded for the fourth quarter of 2015. Follow up: The reasons for the -0.84% decline in the headline number were numerous, with much...

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