Tag Archive: commodities

Saudi-Arabia: Peg or Banking Crisis?

2016-06-04

During the reign of the mighty petro-dollar standard, it was necessary for major oil exporters to recycle their dollar holdings back into the dollar-based financial system to maintain their self-imposed exchange rate pegs. US government bonds are the...

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The Stunning Idiocy of Steel Tariffs

2016-05-30

by Pater Tenebrarum

2016-05-30

Victims of the Boom-Bust Cycle The world is drowning in steel – there is huge overcapacity in steel production worldwide. This is a direct result of the massive global credit expansion that has taken place over the past 15 years. Much of this capac...

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OPEC Politics: Russian King, Iranian Crown Prince?

2016-05-12

by Eugen von Böhm Bawerk

2016-05-12

Another month, another OPEC meeting beckons for 2nd June. But unlike typical meetings on the Danube (let alone dust filled haze of Doha), the producer group might just have a new King in town.

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Commodities – Will the Rally Continue?

2016-05-03

by Pater Tenebrarum

2016-05-03

Pros and Cons The recent rally in commodity prices has surprised many market participants and has greatly supported the stock market’s rebound. It has also made bulls out of a number of former stock market bears, as one of its side effects was to c...

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Revisiting the CRB Index

2016-04-11

by Marc Chandler

2016-04-11

The CRB Index is building on last Friday's gains, when it gapped higher. That gap marked the end of the down move we anticipated on March 28. The index fell through the two supports we identified (171.30 and 169.50), before bottoming on April...

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OPEC’s Doha Dilemma: 3mb/d US lock in?

2016-03-29

by Eugen von Böhm Bawerk

2016-03-29

Bawerk shows that more than 3 mb/d of American oil production was helped by US$55.5bn in credit facilities, by excessive debt. This production is now at risk and the debt may not be repaid. The big OPEC players are playing against US shale oil and some smaller OPEC members that have higher costs.

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Great Graphic: Bottom Building on CRB Commodity Index?

2016-03-28

by Marc Chandler

2016-03-28

Marc Chandler shows that after the commodity currency Canadian Dollar, also the CRB Commodity index could have found a bottom. See here his Great Graphic on the CAD bottom buildung. See also the CAD resilience despite falling oil prices.

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Revolutionary Guards: The Way of the Iranian Future

2016-03-03

by Eugen von Böhm Bawerk

2016-03-03

Iranian elections have supposedly put a very nice ‘moderate’ spin on Iranian politics in parliamentary ranks, and more importantly, Assembly of Experts composition. While it would be churlish to deny, it represents a significant step forward for Pres...

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Can Maduro Mayhem Last to 2017

2016-02-26

by Eugen von Böhm Bawerk

2016-02-26

Things are turning increasingly ugly in Venezuela between President Maduro and the opposition MUD. The core political problem after December 2015 elections is the PSUV are now using the courts to neuter any opposition voices that formally hold a legi...

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China’s 3 trillion dollar mistake

When looking at the current state of the Chinese economy it is important to note what happened leading up the ongoing predicament. By managing the USD/CNY exchange rate the Chinese factory worker was essentially funding excess consumption in the Unit...

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What a Negative SWAP Spread Really Means

2015-11-21

by Eugen von Böhm Bawerk

2015-11-21

SWAP spreads recently took a nosedive and are once again trading at negative levels, even for shorter maturities. As can be seen from the chart below, treasury yields, here represented by the 10 year maturity, rose during QE policies programs contrad...

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The Great Unwind

2015-10-24

by Eugen von Böhm Bawerk

2015-10-24

Over the decade long commodity boom made in China we have all been accustomed to the large and growing current account surpluses being recycled back into western financial security markets. Case in point, from 2000 to its peak in the fall of 2013 the...

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9) Markets

We are currently looking for an curator of this category. The aim is explain how to obtain sustainably nice returns on stocks and bonds. The focus here should be also on global macro. Sustainability is key: "buy today and sell far in the future", for example when you get retired. Publicity for own books or publication is allowed.

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