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Tag Archives: China

Wonking Out: Economic Nationalism, Biden-Style

If you’re under 50, you probably don’t remember when Japan was going to take over the world. But in the late 1980s and early 1990s, many people were obsessed with Japan’s economic success and feared American decline. The supposedly nonfiction sections of airport bookstores were filled with volumes featuring samurai warriors on their covers, promising to teach you the secrets of Japanese management. Michael Crichton had a best-selling novel, “Rising Sun,” about the looming threat of Japanese...

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Guest Contribution: “How Tariffs Affect China’s Exports”

Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with. Donald Trump launched a trade war with China.  On 6 July 2018 he placed 25% tariffs on $34 billion of imports from China and on 23 August 2018 he placed 25% tariffs on an...

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Afternoon roundup

An overdue closing of the browser tabs brings these worthies:Justin Giovannetti on New Zealand diplomacy and China.The New Zealand Principals Federation suggests merging the teacher colleges into the universities might have something to do with declining teacher competence. I was on faculty at Canterbury when the College of Education merged in in 2006. It never made much sense to me on academic grounds. Teacher training was vocational training. Experts in vocational training, of the kind...

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Krugman Wonks Out: The China Shock and the Climate Shock

This article is a wonky edition of Paul Krugman’s free newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it.Today’s column was focused on the remarkable announcement by the United Mine Workers that the union is ready to support the Biden infrastructure plan — if that plan helps miners and mining communities transition out of coal. This looks like a vindication of the “Green New Deal” approach to climate policy, even if Biden isn’t calling it that. That is, it suggests that an approach that...

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“Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective”

From the paper by Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, Xinding Yu & Kunfu Zhu: The United States imports intermediate inputs from China, helping downstream US firms to expand employment. Using a cross-regional reduced-form specification but differing from the existing literature, this paper (a) incorporates a supply chain perspective, (b) uses intermediate input imports rather than total imports in computing the downstream exposure, and (c) uses exporter-specific information to allocate imported...

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The RMB’s Progress (in Internationalization)

The rapid ascent in CNY reserves was in 2018, with some resumption in 2020. From 2016 to 2019, Renminbi turnover rose from 4% to 4.3% (out of 200%). Figure 1: Foreign exchange reserves allocated in USD as share of total (allocated, unallocated) reserves (blue), EUR (red), CNY (green). Pink shading is Trump administration. Source: IMF COFER, various issues, author’s calculations. FIgure 2: Foreign exchange turnover share in April in USD (blue square), in EUR (red triangle), in CNY (green...

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On “Intimidation” (and a very short, truncated history on the Chinese diaspora in America)

At the risk of excessive navel-gazing, a commentary on what responsibilities Asian-Americans have in calling out China. An reader writes: [D]o I think Menzie is a China apologist? No. Do I think Menzie is thoroughly intimidated by China? Absolutely. But he is hardly alone in this. Nevertheless, there is a bigger picture. If China follows trend, if this trend leads to open conflict with the US, then Menzie will regret not having taken a more public and determined stand to argue...

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The July Trade Release

Trade deficit grows. US-China goods trade deficit is now growing too. Figure 1: US Trade balance, balance of payments basis, billions $, SAAR (blue). Gray denotes possible NBER recession period. Source: BuCensus/BEA via FRED and author’s calculations. The annualized trade deficit in 2017M01 was $515 billion; it was $763 in July. Figure 2: US-China Goods trade balance, billions $, s.a., annualized (blue). Seasonal adjustment using multiplicative seasonal dummies. Gray denotes possible NBER...

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The US-China Trade War/Soybean Front: Home before the (Next Batch of) Leaves Fall

On July 9, 2018, over two years ago, reader CoRev wrote: Those of us arguing against the constant anti-tariff, anti-Trump dialogs have noted this will probably be a price blip lasting until US/Chinese negotiations end. We are on record saying the prices will be back approaching last year’s harvest season prices. Prices were in the 982 range in October 2017, midpoint in the previous harvest season. As of today, November futures are at 881. Since then, despite the recession, the overall CPI...

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