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Tag Archives: aa syndication

Consumer and Government Spending, Plus Investment, Offset Trade and Inventory Losses in 4Q GDP

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute January 26, 2018 - BEA Estimates 4th Quarter 2017 GDP Growth to be 2.54%: In their first (and preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +2.54% annual rate, down -0.62% from the prior quarter. Follow up: Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. This is a report of sharp contrasts....

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The Phillips Curve: Timelessly Misleading

by Philip Pilkington Article of the Week by Fixing the Economists Tom Palley has written a blog post politely requesting that Paul Krugman might give a bit of recognition to non-mainstream contributors to economics. It would be nice to see this happen but I doubt that it will (although Palley is getting a bit of blog play out of it which is nice). Anyway, I note that in the post he links to a discussion he and Krugman had regarding the Phillips Curve.  Before I get to the arguments put...

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Mortgage Default During the Great Recession Came from Real Estate Investors, Not Subprime Credit Holders

from Voxeu.org -- this post authored by Stefania Albanesi, Giacomo De Giorgi and Jaromir Nosal The Global Crisis narrative has suggested that an expansion of subprime credit was the reason for rising mortgage defaults, leading to the large-scale recession in 2007-09. Taking a closer look at the characteristics of subprime credit holders over the period, this column argues that the growth in mortgage defaults did not occur predominantly amongst subprime credit holders. Instead, it was real...

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Tobin’s Q: A Wily Trickster and Slightly Vacuous

Article of the Week from Fixing the Economists by Philip Pilkington I was writing an article recently for an internet website about the recent IMF proclamations that there may be a global housing bubble underway.  Follow up: Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. While examining the potential impacts on the global economy if the IMF turns out to be correct I came across an interesting paper that the Bank of England published back in...

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Is the Keynes Investment Multiplier Actually a Divider?

British economist John Maynard Keynes transferred Richard Kahn’s employment multiplier into the concept of an investment multiplier. Others used the same formula to arrive at a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) multiplier. Portrayed by Keynesian followers as an advantage for government deficit spending and featured as a significant advance in economic thought for determining public policy, the ‘multiplier” could be misunderstood and not deliver the benefits it promises. Follow up: Please share...

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The Fragmentation of Society

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline Lately, my life has been completely packed with speeches, meetings, and in-depth, often lengthy, conversations. Plus ongoing research and writing, of course. It all culminated Thursday afternoon at the beginning of a business meeting with the leadership team from a firm that will become a significant new business partner. At the very beginning of the meeting, the head of the firm leaned over to me and asked, “What’s on the top of your mind?...

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Trump’s Planned Tax Reforms: A Look at the Numbers

by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction Tax reform is never easy. There are with lobbying groups aligned on all sides to protect their special interests and create new ones. This makes tax reform one of the most difficult political feats to accomplish. At this point, only the broad outlines of Trump’s tax reform plan are available. Below, the numbers on what is known are presented. There appear to be some problems. Follow up: Please share this article - Go to very top of...

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Slackers: How the Multiplier Works in the Real World

by Philip Pilkington In a previous post I wrote about the key reason that the natural rate of interest does not exist. There I discussed the Kahn Multiplier. We saw that when investment increased consumption increased along with it due to the fresh income received from the investment spending. Follow up: Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. The increase in consumption was then multiplied out into the wider economy in accordance...

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Optimizing the Federal Corporate Tax Rate

Written by Dan Lieberman, Alternativeinsight The Trump administration and its lower tax advocates have not provided adequate analyses and proofs to validate their opinions. Proponents of lower corporate taxes, who claim it will make corporations more productive and escalate production activity, may find their proposals do not automatically make corporations more competitive and benefit the economy less than equivalent government spending. Follow up: Please share this article - Go to very...

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The Tax Deception Exposed

Written by Dan Lieberman, Alternativeinsight "A good catchword can obscure analysis for fifty years." - Oliver Wendell Holmes Follow up: Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. Without proof, the Republican Party and Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform have pushed catchy expressions into our lexicon, casually and with absolute conviction. Two of the most prominent are:  Lowering income tax rates benefits the economy. Raising...

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