by In the weeks before the election, I viewed Wisconsin to be the most likely “tipping point state”, as it was in 2016. It turns out I was correct on that point. So goes Wisconsin, so goes America.In September, I had expected Trump to win. But when I saw the following story on October 28, I couldn’t in good faith predict that Trump would win. Thus in the end I wimped out and predicted nobody. Biden up 17 points in new Wisconsin pollDemocratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a commanding lead over President Trump in Wisconsin in a new poll of the key battleground state released less than a week before Election Day.The ABC News-Washington Post poll found Biden supported by 57 percent of likely voters, far ahead of the president’s 40 percent. Unlike Nate Silver (and
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In the weeks before the election, I viewed Wisconsin to be the most likely “tipping point state”, as it was in 2016. It turns out I was correct on that point. So goes Wisconsin, so goes America.
In September, I had expected Trump to win. But when I saw the following story on October 28, I couldn’t in good faith predict that Trump would win. Thus in the end I wimped out and predicted nobody.
Biden up 17 points in new Wisconsin poll
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a commanding lead over President Trump in Wisconsin in a new poll of the key battleground state released less than a week before Election Day.
The ABC News-Washington Post poll found Biden supported by 57 percent of likely voters, far ahead of the president’s 40 percent.
Unlike Nate Silver (and many of my commenters), I knew that polls were understating Trump’s support. The betting markets knew this too. And I knew there is a 3% margin of error in polls. But surely polls can’t be off by 17%!
And I was right. The WaPo/ABC Wisconsin poll was not off by 17%. It was off by 16.4%. That’s why Biden won.
PS. I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but if I were I’d be asking how Trump could have done 16.4% better than the WaPo/ABC poll. Massive GOP election fraud in a failed attempt to steal the election?
🙂
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