Wednesday , December 2 2020
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Two new NGDP prediction markets

Summary:
Hypermind has two new NGDP prediction markets up and running, one covering 2020:Q4 to 2021:Q4, and one covering 2021:Q4 to 2022:Q4.It’s early, and I don’t believe there’s been much trading, but so far the predicted growth rates are rather low (below 4%.) I hope to get the new markets embedded here soon, but feel free to start picking up some of the 0 bills on the sidewalk (actually Amazon coupons.) And once again, people with more money and power than me should be working hard on getting a highly liquid NGDP prediction market up and running. A high quality NGDP prediction market is like a billion dollar bill that’s lying on the sidewalk. So why has the federal government been too lazy to pick it up? Tags:

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Hypermind has two new NGDP prediction markets up and running, one covering 2020:Q4 to 2021:Q4, and one covering 2021:Q4 to 2022:Q4.

It’s early, and I don’t believe there’s been much trading, but so far the predicted growth rates are rather low (below 4%.)

I hope to get the new markets embedded here soon, but feel free to start picking up some of the $100 bills on the sidewalk (actually Amazon coupons.)

And once again, people with more money and power than me should be working hard on getting a highly liquid NGDP prediction market up and running. A high quality NGDP prediction market is like a billion dollar bill that’s lying on the sidewalk. So why has the federal government been too lazy to pick it up?


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Scott Sumner
Scott B. Sumner is Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, the Director of the Program on Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and an economist who teaches at Bentley University in Waltham, Massachusetts. His economics blog, The Money Illusion, popularized the idea of nominal GDP targeting, which says that the Fed should target nominal GDP—i.e., real GDP growth plus the rate of inflation—to better "induce the correct level of business investment".

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