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What would real house prices look like in a world without bubbles?

Summary:
This: A series of random, unpredictable ups and downs. The Great Recession was not caused by a the bursting of a housing bubble, because there was no bubble.  It was caused by tight money. When I started blogging in early 2009, I was told that the EMH was wrong because value stocks outperformed growth stocks.  But anti-EMH theories are not useful to me, because as soon as I hear one it stops working. PS.  We’ve added the Hypermind NGDP forecast in the right margin of this blog.  The current reading for the 2020 market is 3.05.  That means market participants expect NGDP to grow at 3.05% between the first quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Tags:

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This:

What would real house prices look like in a world without bubbles?A series of random, unpredictable ups and downs.

The Great Recession was not caused by a the bursting of a housing bubble, because there was no bubble.  It was caused by tight money.

When I started blogging in early 2009, I was told that the EMH was wrong because value stocks outperformed growth stocks.  But anti-EMH theories are not useful to me, because as soon as I hear one it stops working.

What would real house prices look like in a world without bubbles?

PS.  We’ve added the Hypermind NGDP forecast in the right margin of this blog.  The current reading for the 2020 market is 3.05.  That means market participants expect NGDP to grow at 3.05% between the first quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021.


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Scott Sumner
Scott B. Sumner is Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, the Director of the Program on Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and an economist who teaches at Bentley University in Waltham, Massachusetts. His economics blog, The Money Illusion, popularized the idea of nominal GDP targeting, which says that the Fed should target nominal GDP—i.e., real GDP growth plus the rate of inflation—to better "induce the correct level of business investment".

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