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A warning for Democrats

Summary:
Just a year before the next election, polls show that roughly half of voters believe that Trump should be impeached and removed from office. That should be great news for Democrats, right? Even if he survives impeachment (which seems likely), the polls show that he’s quite unpopular. Unfortunately, betting markets show that if Trump gets the nomination then he is likely to be re-elected. This is not because Trump is popular; rather the betting markets anticipate that the Dems will pick an extremely weak candidate, someone like Elizabeth Warren. If Democratic voters had the best interest of the country at heart then they’d pick someone who would be electable. I fear they have other goals in mind. BTW, this caught my eye: In August, President Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald

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Just a year before the next election, polls show that roughly half of voters believe that Trump should be impeached and removed from office.

That should be great news for Democrats, right? Even if he survives impeachment (which seems likely), the polls show that he’s quite unpopular. Unfortunately, betting markets show that if Trump gets the nomination then he is likely to be re-elected.

This is not because Trump is popular; rather the betting markets anticipate that the Dems will pick an extremely weak candidate, someone like Elizabeth Warren. If Democratic voters had the best interest of the country at heart then they’d pick someone who would be electable. I fear they have other goals in mind.

BTW, this caught my eye:

In August, President Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald Jr., flew to Jakarta to help kick-start sales at a pair of Trump-branded luxury resorts planned for Indonesia. He appeared at a private event with wealthy prospective buyers and joined his politically connected billionaire Indonesian business partner at a news conference.

And last year, Donald Jr. visited India to sell condos at future Trump-branded towers, appearing at an event that also featured India’s prime minister.. .

When the Trump Organization tangled with the majority owner of a property in Panama, for example, its local lawyers at one point called on the Panamanian president for an assist.

In Indonesia, the government is helping to build a major new highway that will make a new Trump development more accessible.

Yes, Indian Prime Ministers normally show up at condo sales events. Of course we know from the Ukraine phone call that foreign leaders are not at all willing to kowtow to Trump and assist his business interests, right? So what does Donald Trump Jr. think of all this?

“At the VERY LEAST, there’s the appearance of impropriety,” Donald Trump Jr. wrote on Twitter. “A clear conflict of interest.”

Oh wait, that comment was referring to Hunter Biden’s business dealings. Sorry.

It seems that in the Trump family the apple does not fall far from the tree.


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Scott Sumner
Scott B. Sumner is Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, the Director of the Program on Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and an economist who teaches at Bentley University in Waltham, Massachusetts. His economics blog, The Money Illusion, popularized the idea of nominal GDP targeting, which says that the Fed should target nominal GDP—i.e., real GDP growth plus the rate of inflation—to better "induce the correct level of business investment".

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