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Danish Criminals respond to incentives

Summary:
The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of OffendersAnne Sofie Tegner Anker, Jennifer L. Doleac and Rasmus LandersøThis paper studies the effects of adding criminal offenders to a DNA database. Using a large expansion of Denmark's DNA database, we find that DNA registration reduces recidivism within the following year by up to 42 percent. It also increases the probability that offenders are identified if they recidivate, which we use to estimate the elasticity of crime with respect to the detection probability and find that a 1 percent higher detection probability reduces crime by more than 2 percent. We also find that DNA registration increases the likelihood that offenders find employment, enroll in education, and live in a more stable family environment. Full-Text

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The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders
Anne Sofie Tegner Anker, Jennifer L. Doleac and Rasmus Landersø
This paper studies the effects of adding criminal offenders to a DNA database. Using a large expansion of Denmark's DNA database, we find that DNA registration reduces recidivism within the following year by up to 42 percent. It also increases the probability that offenders are identified if they recidivate, which we use to estimate the elasticity of crime with respect to the detection probability and find that a 1 percent higher detection probability reduces crime by more than 2 percent. We also find that DNA registration increases the likelihood that offenders find employment, enroll in education, and live in a more stable family environment. 
Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials

Here is the mechanism:  Higher probability of detection ==> lower expected profits from criminal activity ==> less crime

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