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Poverty and middle-class income data out tomorrow morning

Summary:
It’s that time of year again, when the Census Bureau releases its poverty, income, and health-insurance coverage data for 2017. I’ll get a write-up out as soon as I can after the 10am data release, but be forewarned: these data are more complicated and a lot less standardized than, say, the BLS jobs data. So, it will take a few hours to chew through them. For what it’s worth, which isn’t much, as recent survey changes make these data tough to accurately forecast, my predictions are that poverty fell half a point last year (from 12.7% to 12.2%) and real median household income grew about 1.7%. If so, both changes would be statistically significant gains. But they would be smaller gains than the prior two years, and one reason for that, if I’m in the ballpark, will be that inflation was a

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It’s that time of year again, when the Census Bureau releases its poverty, income, and health-insurance coverage data for 2017. I’ll get a write-up out as soon as I can after the 10am data release, but be forewarned: these data are more complicated and a lot less standardized than, say, the BLS jobs data. So, it will take a few hours to chew through them.

For what it’s worth, which isn’t much, as recent survey changes make these data tough to accurately forecast, my predictions are that poverty fell half a point last year (from 12.7% to 12.2%) and real median household income grew about 1.7%. If so, both changes would be statistically significant gains.

But they would be smaller gains than the prior two years, and one reason for that, if I’m in the ballpark, will be that inflation was a bit faster last year (2.1%) compared to 2015 (0.1%) and 2016 (1.3%).

Details to follow tomorrow!

Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernstein joined the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in May 2011 as a Senior Fellow. From 2009 to 2011, Bernstein was the Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, Executive Director of the White House Task Force on the Middle Class, and a member of President Obama’s economic team. Prior to joining the Obama administration, Bernstein was a senior economist and the director of the Living Standards Program at the Economic Policy Institute, and between 1995 and 1996, he held the post of Deputy Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor.

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