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Data note re WaPo wage story

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Here are my thoughts on why wages aren’t growing more quickly, in WaPo. The model I used is sort of like that of the Fed’s in the Yellen speech cited in the piece. Using quarterly data for the hourly wage of production, non-supervisory workers from 1989q1-2017q2, it regresses year-over-year nominal growth on “slack” (the unemployment rate – CBOs NAIRU), lagged inflation expectations (as in the Fed model), smoothed productivity growth (HP filter; two lags), and 2 lags of the DV. Share the post "Data note re WaPo wage story"

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Here are my thoughts on why wages aren’t growing more quickly, in WaPo.

The model I used is sort of like that of the Fed’s in the Yellen speech cited in the piece. Using quarterly data for the hourly wage of production, non-supervisory workers from 1989q1-2017q2, it regresses year-over-year nominal growth on “slack” (the unemployment rate – CBOs NAIRU), lagged inflation expectations (as in the Fed model), smoothed productivity growth (HP filter; two lags), and 2 lags of the DV.

Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernstein joined the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in May 2011 as a Senior Fellow. From 2009 to 2011, Bernstein was the Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, Executive Director of the White House Task Force on the Middle Class, and a member of President Obama’s economic team. Prior to joining the Obama administration, Bernstein was a senior economist and the director of the Living Standards Program at the Economic Policy Institute, and between 1995 and 1996, he held the post of Deputy Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor.

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