Sunday , March 7 2021
Home / Global Economic Intersection / COVID-19: Global Update 14 February 2021

COVID-19: Global Update 14 February 2021

Summary:
Posted on 15 February 2021 by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in Worldwide trends for COVID19 pandemic in terms of cases and deaths have shown improvements in recent weeks, but are the improvements temporary or an indication of more long-lasting improvements? Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. Worldwide trends for COVID19 pandemic in terms of cases and deaths: There is some ambiguity in timing the waves of the pandemic. This ambiguity is driven by the dynamics of the new cases and, to a lesser extent, deaths. Globally, we have exited Wave 3 that started around Week 34 of 2020 and peaked in Week 1 of 2021. Promising dynamics aside, latest level of new infections remains at the levels well above Waves 1

Topics:
Global Economic Intersection Analysis Blog Feed considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Tyler Cowen writes The new phrenology?

Tyler Cowen writes Saturday assorted links

Alex Tabarrok writes Detroit Fauci

Miles Kimball writes Daniel Strain: Snakeskin Inspires New, Friction-Reducing Material

posted on 15 February 2021

by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

Worldwide trends for COVID19 pandemic in terms of cases and deaths have shown improvements in recent weeks, but are the improvements temporary or an indication of more long-lasting improvements?

COVID-19: Global Update 14 February 2021


Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.


Worldwide trends for COVID19 pandemic in terms of cases and deaths:

COVID-19: Global Update 14 February 2021

There is some ambiguity in timing the waves of the pandemic. This ambiguity is driven by the dynamics of the new cases and, to a lesser extent, deaths. Globally, we have exited Wave 3 that started around Week 34 of 2020 and peaked in Week 1 of 2021. Promising dynamics aside, latest level of new infections remains at the levels well above Waves 1 and 2 peaks.

COVID-19: Global Update 14 February 2021

Weekly death counts have also peaked in Week 3 of 2021, marking the end of Wave 3. However, the latest death counts are the fifth highest on record and remain severely elevated compared to deaths recorded at the peak of Waves 1 and 2.

COVID-19: Global Update 14 February 2021

Recent decreases in mortality rate are most likely attributable to three key drivers: (1) earlier detection of cases due to improved testing; (2) younger demographics of those with confirmed infections; and (3) improved treatments in the earlier stages of the disease. The decrease in mortality appears to have stabilized and is slightly reversing in the first 5 weeks of 2021. This is the most worrying aspect of the three trends discussed above.

Here is a summary table, with green cells showing improvements and red cells showing deterioration in dynamics:

COVID-19: Global Update 14 February 2021

Last week's deaths have shown an improvement on 4 weeks average in all regions world-wide, and this has been consistent across all (excluding Asia) regions also in terms of new cases 4 weeks average compared to prior 4 weeks average. Deaths, however, are still up on the 4weeks average relative to prior 4 weeks average basis in most regions, with exception of two.

For now, it is hard to attribute the above improvements to vaccinations (long term solutions) and the improved dynamics are probably more consistent with a natural flow of the pandemic wave, reflecting tightening of restrictions on social activities in virtually all major geographies following the holidays season. This, along with the rapidly growing prevalence of the new, more infective, strands of the virus suggests that the gains made in recent weeks are at a risk of reversals.


This article appeared on True Economics 14 February 2021.


.

include("/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm"); ?>

Click here for Historical Analysis Post Listing


Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

Facebook Comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *