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America’s Scariest Charts 05 January 2021

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Posted on 09 January 2021 by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in U.S. Labor Markets Update Continued unemployment claims (based on seasonally-adjusted data) are continuing to decline, as the latest data through mid-December 2020 shows, yet, even with these news, the latest data print puts continued claims for unemployment at the levels comparable with late 2009. Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Editor's note: These charts do not reflect the December Employment Situation Report issued 08 January 2021, which saw unemployment again rising for the first time in 7 months with 140,000 jobs lost.So here is the chart showing overall levels of continued unemployment claims in the U.S.:And here is one of my "Scariest

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posted on 09 January 2021

by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

U.S. Labor Markets Update

Continued unemployment claims (based on seasonally-adjusted data) are continuing to decline, as the latest data through mid-December 2020 shows, yet, even with these news, the latest data print puts continued claims for unemployment at the levels comparable with late 2009.

America's Scariest Charts 05 January 2021


Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.


Editor's note: These charts do not reflect the December Employment Situation Report issued 08 January 2021, which saw unemployment again rising for the first time in 7 months with 140,000 jobs lost.


So here is the chart showing overall levels of continued unemployment claims in the U.S.:

America's Scariest Charts 05 January 2021

And here is one of my "Scariest Charts", showing index of continued unemployment claims across all modern recessions:

America's Scariest Charts 05 January 2021

Given current rates of continued unemployment claims declines,

  • Over the last 4 weeks, average weekly decrease in continued unemployment claims stood at 77,000
  • Current levels are 3,570,000 higher than pre-Covid low.
  • Which means that it would take roughly 46 weeks at the current 4-weeks average rate of decrease to eliminate surplus unemployment generated by the Covid19 pandemic. Which is pretty much the same distance to point of regaining pre-Covid19 levels of unemployment claims as well.

Meanwhile, some bad news from the most recent data on new unemployment claims:

America's Scariest Charts 05 January 2021

In December 2020, new unemployment claims have risen, not fallen, on 4 months cumulative basis due to a large increase in non-seasonally adjusted new claims in the first week of the month. How bad are things? Most recent data point ranks 33rd highest new unemployment claims weekly count in the entire history of the series (since July 1967). However, excluding other weeks of Covid19 pandemic, or, put differently, contextualizing current levels to pre-Covid19 history, the latest levels of new unemployment claims would have ranked as 5th highest in history.

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