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Russia And BRIICS COVID-19 Update 29 July 2020

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Posted on 01 August 2020 by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in Russia is failing to arrest the new cases curve and the deaths curve, with both series running at elevated levels through July. The decline in new cases around the end of June was also associated with a drop in daily deaths. Since the opening up of the restrictions in advance of the July referendum vote, Russian COVID19 cases and deaths have shown disruption in the prior positive trends.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Last 7-days average new cases are running at 5,741, which is statistically indistinguishable from the prior 7-days average of 6,197. Similarly, current 7-days average of 132 is materially indistinguishable from the prior 7-days

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posted on 01 August 2020

by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

Russia is failing to arrest the new cases curve and the deaths curve, with both series running at elevated levels through July. The decline in new cases around the end of June was also associated with a drop in daily deaths. Since the opening up of the restrictions in advance of the July referendum vote, Russian COVID19 cases and deaths have shown disruption in the prior positive trends.

Russia And BRIICS COVID-19 Update 29 July 2020


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Last 7-days average new cases are running at 5,741, which is statistically indistinguishable from the prior 7-days average of 6,197. Similarly, current 7-days average of 132 is materially indistinguishable from the prior 7-days average of 138.

Russia And BRIICS COVID-19 Update 29 July 2020

I noted in late June that Russia is rushing into relaxation of restrictions and this is a mis-guided policy decision that seem to have nothing to do with the pandemic dynamics. It appears that my analysis was correct.

Russia And BRIICS COVID-19 Update 29 July 2020

Russian mortality rates are rising, and are now firmly close to the average of the BRIICS economies:

Russia And BRIICS COVID-19 Update 29 July 2020

Amongst all countries with more than 25,000 cases (58 countries & EU27), currently, Russia ranks

  • 22nd highest by the number of COVID19 cases per capita
  • 32nd highest by the number of deaths per capita of population
  • 44th highest by the mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 COVID19 cases)
  • Cumulatively, across all three categories of metrics, Russia scores within the 95% confidence interval for the mean score for the group of 58 countries and the EU27.

Posted by TrueEconomics 29 July 2020.

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