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COVID-19: Global Growth Trends

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Posted on 09 March 2020 by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in So far, one thing is clear: we are in an exponential growth (not linear) when it comes to COVID-19, everywhere, except for Japan.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. Here is the full data set through March 7th: Two observations worth making:Ex-China data is exponential. The doubling rate remains at around 4 days since February 24th, prior to that, it was at 6-7 days, which indicates acceleration in the exponential trend.With China data included, the trend is a bit more complex: we have exponential sub-trends of different steepness, with the first period through February 8th, followed by the step-function (on average still exponential) through

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posted on 09 March 2020

by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

So far, one thing is clear: we are in an exponential growth (not linear) when it comes to COVID-19, everywhere, except for Japan.

COVID-19: Global Growth Trends


Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.


COVID-19: Global Growth Trends

Here is the full data set through March 7th:

COVID-19: Global Growth Trends

Two observations worth making:

  • Ex-China data is exponential. The doubling rate remains at around 4 days since February 24th, prior to that, it was at 6-7 days, which indicates acceleration in the exponential trend.
  • With China data included, the trend is a bit more complex: we have exponential sub-trends of different steepness, with the first period through February 8th, followed by the step-function (on average still exponential) through February 17th, a linear sub-trend over 18th-24th of February and a new exponential trend since February 25th.

Post-February 25th trend is dominated by global infections, as opposed to China-based infections.

Currently, 17 countries have in excess of 100 confirmed cases:

COVID-19: Global Growth Trends


Posted on True Economics 08 March 2020.


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