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America’s Scariest Charts Updated 25 July 2020

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Posted on 26 July 2020 by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in Data has been updated through the week of 18 July and the charts are still really scary.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.First, a summary table and chart for changes in the Initial Unemployment Claims:Next: Continued Unemployment Claims through the week of July 11, 2020:Key takeaways this week: Continued unemployment claims changes: Latest count at 16,197,000, down from 17,304,000 a week ago - a decline driven by both, re-gained jobs and exits from unemployment benefits;Latest week w/w decline is faster than in any of the prior weeks of the current recession;Latest counts are 14,495,000 above the levels recorded in the first week of the current

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posted on 26 July 2020

by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

Data has been updated through the week of 18 July and the charts are still really scary.

America's Scariest Charts Updated 25 July 2020


Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.


First, a summary table and chart for changes in the Initial Unemployment Claims:

America's Scariest Charts Updated 25 July 2020

America's Scariest Charts Updated 25 July 2020

Next: Continued Unemployment Claims through the week of July 11, 2020:

America's Scariest Charts Updated 25 July 2020

America's Scariest Charts Updated 25 July 2020

Key takeaways this week:

Continued unemployment claims changes:

  • Latest count at 16,197,000, down from 17,304,000 a week ago - a decline driven by both, re-gained jobs and exits from unemployment benefits;
  • Latest week w/w decline is faster than in any of the prior weeks of the current recession;
  • Latest counts are 14,495,000 above the levels recorded in the first week of the current recession and are 14,548,000 above pre-recession trough;
  • At last week's rate of decline, we have 13 weeks of unemployment claims to work through before recovering to pre-recession levels; based on the last 4 weeks average - 19 weeks.

New unemployment claims changes:

  • Latest new unemployment claims filed figures are the lowest in the current recession cycle, but materially close to those recorded in the week of July 4, 2020;
  • Nonetheless, we are now in 18 weeks of continued new unemployment claims filings in excess of 1 million per week.

Longer term view:

  • Discontinuation of emergency $600/week unemployment support payment or curtailing of the benefit is likely to push both of the above series down in the short run in mid- to late-August, with a knock-on longer term effect of increasing longer term unemployment claims in September and onward.

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America's Scariest Charts Updated 25 July 2020

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America's Scariest Charts Updated 25 July 2020



America's Scariest Charts Updated 25 July 2020
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America's Scariest Charts Updated 25 July 2020


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America's Scariest Charts Updated 25 July 2020


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