Chinese growth is slowing, the Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy and US equities have seized up, losing over 13 per cent of their value since October. Add to that an unresolved trade war with China, and it's no surprise that recession warnings have reached a crescendo. While the IMF's David Lipton told the FT on the sidelines of the American Economic Association annual meeting in Atlanta over the weekend that he doesn't predict a recession this year or next, markets are saying something quite different. According to Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou at J.P. Morgan Securities, US equity markets are currently pricing in a 60 per cent chance of a US recession within one year. High-grade credit points to similar odds, as does US Treasuries and base metals. Investors in the one outlier, US
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Chinese growth is slowing, the Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy and US equities...