This article has been updated since publication to include some new BIS data.The big story in global finance over the past 48 hours has been an inversion of the US and UK yield curves — with the news the yield on the ten-year bond had dipped below shorter maturities often seen as a harbinger of recession.Alphaville will assume that most of our readership understands terms such as yield and inversion (and for those who haven’t the foggiest, we would recommend this explainer from Vox).While it is plausible to view yield curve inversion as a sign of rising concern over the economy, we are not entirely convinced it is in fact the best economic bellwether. Neither, as it turns out, is the bank for central banks, the Bank for International Settlements.It’s worth stating that it’s easy to see why
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This article has been updated since publication to include some new BIS...