Alphaville woke up at 2am in London last night, grabbed for our phones and discovered a string a tweets suggesting that Democrats reach for their wine. Around 1:30am GMT, several Republican-leaning districts in Florida had gone Republican. A Democratic-leaning district in Indiana had swung right, hard. A race in suburban Virginia was too tight. And out of anecdotes came a false precision: FiveThirtyEight's live prediction model had twitched up, giving Republicans as high as a 60 per cent chance of holding the House. At 1:35am GMT Nate Silver, the model's author, instructed it to ignore partial vote counts, making it less sensitive. But the tight races and the loose model had already — briefly — released an idea into the world: the Republicans might keep it all. The spike showed up in
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Alphaville woke up at 2am in London last night, grabbed for our phones and discovered a string...