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Introducing the MAGA tracker

Summary:
Ok, so there’s no baseball cap or red tie. Not even a Trump wig. But hold your heckles, because this is the first attempt we’ve seen at capturing, graphically, the progress being made towards Making America Great Again.Also, more importantly, it’s from Michael Hartnett — he of Thundering Word fame and chief investment strategist at BoA Merrill Lynch…You’ll need Merrill to explain that grey stain a bit further:MAGA 10yr range = 25th & 75th percentiles of average changes in US small business confidence, average hourly earnings, housing starts, and commercial & industrial loans. Post US-election level = average of data since Nov’16 scaled to 100.So America is off to a good start, on this measure at least.This is one of 12 charts accompanying three investment calls from Harnett on Thursday.A

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Ok, so there’s no baseball cap or red tie. Not even a Trump wig. But hold your heckles, because this is the first attempt we’ve seen at capturing, graphically, the progress being made towards Making America Great Again.

Also, more importantly, it’s from Michael Hartnett — he of Thundering Word fame and chief investment strategist at BoA Merrill Lynch…

Introducing the MAGA tracker

You’ll need Merrill to explain that grey stain a bit further:

MAGA 10yr range = 25th & 75th percentiles of average changes in US small business confidence, average hourly earnings, housing starts, and commercial & industrial loans. Post US-election level = average of data since Nov’16 scaled to 100.

So America is off to a good start, on this measure at least.

This is one of 12 charts accompanying three investment calls from Harnett on Thursday.

A summary:

On asset allocation…we say long stocks, real estate, commodities & USD, short bonds on higher 2017 growth, inflation & interest rates.

On the rally…we say stay long the “Icarus trade” until hubristic Positioning, complacent Profit expectations, hawkish Policy signal big top in risk assets; Icarus targets are SPX 2500, oil $70/b, GT30 3.5%, DXY 110, all before Memorial Day.

On inflation…we say further rotation from Davos Man portfolio to Joe Six-Pack portfolio likely as deflation, monetary stimulus, globalization ends and inflation, fiscal stimulus, economic nationalism begins.

More in the usual place.

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Paul Murphy
Paul Murphy is the founding editor of FT Alphaville and an associate editor of the Financial Times. He joined the FT in London in 2006 as development editor of FT.com, concentrating on the expansion of the online business. Prior to that, he served as the Guardian’s financial editor for seven years. He has also held senior positions in business journalism at the Sunday Business newspaper and the Daily Telegraph. Murphy is a graduate of the London School of Economics.

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