Thursday , November 23 2017
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Citi’s Matt King says “sell”

Summary:
And quite bluntly at that. With our emphasis:What’s a manager supposed to do when by early March your asset class has already exceeded your expectation for full-year returns? Take profit and take the rest of the year off, of course! And if it carries on rallying, go outright short! Yet somehow nobody seems to want to.Part of the reason is that the rally owes more to inflows and short covering than to institutional investor exuberance. And part is that the economic data do seem genuinely to be improving. But sell we think you should, not only in € credit (as we advised a couple of weeks ago) but also more broadly.He suggests seven reason not to trust your “inner Trump”, here so bullet pointed and slightly fleshed out:1. The Fed may stop the inflow party — as mentioned up top “the principal driver of investors’ buying seems to have been a response to mutual fund inflows” and he doubts that’s sustainable due to the obvious Fed-hike risk. More so: “Each and every additional bp in risk-free yield is likely to make investors think twice about the risk they are running in order to generate return elsewhere.”2. A rise in real yields should weigh on risk assets — real yields have remained “surprisingly low” even as nominal yields have risen post-election, with “almost all of the action has been in inflation (and growth) expectations.

Topics:
David Keohane considers the following as important:

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And quite bluntly at that. With our emphasis:

David Keohane
(Spending some time as FTAV’s Bombay wallah. Noticeably sweatier but not much else has changed.) David studied economics, politics and journalism before joining the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012. In between his degree and masters he wandered into the real world of business where he learnt how to manipulate a spreadsheet and organise meetings where nothing gets decided.

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