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Snap AV: The state of the reflation trade

This is from Credit Suisse’s Andrew Garthwaite and team, who first chart the Trump Trade’s roll-over:They think, despite the above which shows inflation surprises turning negative, that the reflation trade has further to run. It’s just that the drivers are shifting. Here’s their reasoning in summary form:‘Hard’ vs ‘soft’ data gap to close: There has been a near record gap in the US between the survey-based, or soft, data and the real, hard data. In our judgement, this gap will be reconciled by the hard data accelerating while the soft data slows. We still believe that the five structural headwinds to global growth over the past four years are diminishing (fiscal tightening, the euro crisis, bank deleveraging, the decline in BRIC growth and the collapse in commodity prices), while we see US

David Keohane considers the following as important:

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This is from Credit Suisse’s Andrew Garthwaite and team, who first chart

David Keohane
(Spending some time as FTAV’s Bombay wallah. Noticeably sweatier but not much else has changed.) David studied economics, politics and journalism before joining the FT in 2011 as a Marjorie Deane fellow. He covered emerging markets, equities and currencies before making the jump over to FT Alphaville in May 2012. In between his degree and masters he wandered into the real world of business where he learnt how to manipulate a spreadsheet and organise meetings where nothing gets decided.

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