In 2012, Robert Gordon famously proposed that growth was stalling because most of the low hanging fruit of innovation had probably already been picked.As the original paper argued:The growth of productivity (output per hour) slowed markedly after 1970. While puzzling at the time, it seems increasingly clear that the one-time-only benefits of the Great Inventions and their spin-offs had occurred and could not happen again. Diminishing returns set in, and eventually all of the subsidiary and complementary developments following from the Great Inventions of IR #2 had happened.If the theory is true, no degree of long-termist investor attitude can arguably turn the trend around.Though, to be clear, Gordon’s innovation slowdown argument went beyond simply a shortage of new ideas. He isolated six
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In 2012, Robert Gordon famously proposed that...