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Don’t worry about ‘the flattening’ (just yet)

It’s that time of year again… when analysts and economists across the City begin to put out their outlook notes for 2018.Citi’s “Prospects for Economies and Financial Markets in 2018 and Beyond” looks at a bunch of trends from ongoing political risk to the impact of global central bank tightening.But it was Ebrahim Rahbari and team’s look into the flattening of the yield curve and what it means for the business cycle that caught our eye.The context is that the current US expansion cycle has lasted 35 quarters. This is the second longest expansion period since WWII. But… when compared to 14 advanced economies (AEs) since 1980, the expansion is only the 14th longest out of 46 expansions.Another key point is that the recovery has been weak as a whole.So then what should we infer from the fact

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It’s that time of year again… when analysts and economists across the City begin to put out...

Izabella Kaminska
Izabella Kaminska joined FT Alphaville in October 2008, which was, perhaps, the best time in the world to become a financial blogger. Before that she worked as a producer at CNBC, a natural gas reporter at Platts and an associate editor of BP’s internal magazine. She has also worked as a reporter on English language business papers in Poland and Azerbaijan and was a Reuters graduate trainee in 2004.

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