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Brainard’s framing challenge

Summary:
Tim Duy has the right response to Lael Brainard’s speech today: Despite the Fed governor’s persuasive attempt, she’ll find it harder to push the Fed in a more dovish direction than she did at the end of 2015, when the Fed was predicting four rates hikes in the next year but only made one.Two years ago, worries about the depressed prospects for the global economy complemented her argument. In addition to the expectation that the oil-price collapse would lead domestic inflation downward, Chinese instability and a dour outlook for Europe, among other macro trends, bolstered the case for the Fed to proceed cautiously.Since then, global growth has outperformed expectations, while the US labour market has continued adding jobs at a reasonable monthly pace, and the unemployment rate is now

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Tim Duy has the right

Cardiff Garcia
Cardiff writes mostly about US macroeconomic issues, with daily excursions into other topics about which he claim no expertise. Before Alphaville, Cardiff spent a little more than two years as a reporter at Dow Jones Financial News covering investment banking, asset management, and private equity. Along the way he has written freelance pieces on a variety of other topics from behavioural psychology to Muay Thai, the latter also being a personal interest that involves frequently getting kicked in the shins (and torso, and head).

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