Tim Duy has the right response to Lael Brainard’s speech today: Despite the Fed governor’s persuasive attempt, she’ll find it harder to push the Fed in a more dovish direction than she did at the end of 2015, when the Fed was predicting four rates hikes in the next year but only made one.Two years ago, worries about the depressed prospects for the global economy complemented her argument. In addition to the expectation that the oil-price collapse would lead domestic inflation downward, Chinese instability and a dour outlook for Europe, among other macro trends, bolstered the case for the Fed to proceed cautiously.Since then, global growth has outperformed expectations, while the US labour market has continued adding jobs at a reasonable monthly pace, and the unemployment rate is now
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Tim Duy has the right