Short everything — everything — east of the Oder until the Russian border, go long whatever the Russian elite will buy when sanctions end, don’t buy Cemex (too easy) — buy European defence contractors — and get out of the Korean won, Saudi riyal and Philippine peso before those countries start being charged for US protection. What else? Here’s more from Exotix, the brokerage, country by country, with a more frontier market bent: BrazilThe lower rates we expect to see with the dovish monetary policy we expect from a Trump Presidency is marginally positive for the sovereign (given the low sovereign dollar debt to GDP), but will have more of an impact in the corporate sector which has borrowed offshore and will face refinancing. A weaker US dollar can hurt the country’s industrial exports but is positive for Petrobras. Stronger commodities are positive for Brazil’s exports and economic activity. Trump’s win raises the risks of increased trade restrictions, with the US being Brazil’s second-largest export destination. IraqWith Trump in charge, American support for Iraq can potentially weaken. The benefit of higher commodity prices for Iraq is therefore balanced against the risk of weaker support from America – and potentially from its DFI partners as well.
Joseph Cotterill considers the following as important: Donald Trump, Uncategorised
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Short everything — everything — east of the Oder until the Russian border, go long whatever...