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Retail Sales: Implications for Consumption

Summary:
Retail sales jumped 9.8% m/m, exceed Bloomberg consensus of 5.9%. Sales ex-food services rose 9.4% in nominal terms, 8.7% if deflated by the CPI-all. Figure 1: Retail sales excluding food services, deflated by CPI-all (blue), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (red), personal consumption expenditure deflators in Ch.2012$ (green), all seasonally adjusted. Source: Census Bureau, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, BEA, BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations. Retail sales ex-food services, deflated by the CPI, kind of tracks manufacturing and trade industry sales, which I’ve been monitoring, following the NBER. It also moves with consumption — but in both cases deflated retail sales have risen faster than either of the latter two series, measured in Chained 2012$. Nonetheless, the

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Retail sales jumped 9.8% m/m, exceed Bloomberg consensus of 5.9%. Sales ex-food services rose 9.4% in nominal terms, 8.7% if deflated by the CPI-all.

Retail Sales: Implications for Consumption

Figure 1: Retail sales excluding food services, deflated by CPI-all (blue), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (red), personal consumption expenditure deflators in Ch.2012$ (green), all seasonally adjusted. Source: Census Bureau, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, BEA, BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Retail sales ex-food services, deflated by the CPI, kind of tracks manufacturing and trade industry sales, which I’ve been monitoring, following the NBER. It also moves with consumption — but in both cases deflated retail sales have risen faster than either of the latter two series, measured in Chained 2012$. Nonetheless, the fact that retail sales, which is released before the other two series, leads to hope for continued recovery in consumption.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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